Tyrese Maxey's three-pointers made prop shows consistent underperformance with just 46.8% overs across 62 games. At 2.95 average versus a 3.0 line, Maxey falls short by exactly one three-pointer per game on average. The under delivers positive ROI while overs lose 10.7%, creating a clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
Tyrese Maxey's three-point production reveals a fascinating case study in market inefficiency. His 2.95 average against a consistent 3.0 line represents a systematic gap that bettors can exploit. The 46.8% over rate isn't just below the 52.4% breakeven threshold—it's significantly below, indicating the market consistently overvalues Maxey's three-point ceiling. This pattern stems from Maxey's role evolution in Philadelphia's offense, where his primary value comes from driving and mid-range scoring rather than spot-up shooting. While he possesses three-point capability, his shot selection often favors higher-percentage looks closer to the basket, especially when Joel Embiid draws defensive attention inside. The -10.7% ROI on overs tells the real story—this isn't random variance but a structural mispricing. Maxey's longest under streak of six games demonstrates the prop's tendency toward extended cold periods, while his longest over streak maxes at just three games. The current streak of one under suggests we're potentially entering another profitable under sequence, particularly given his usage patterns and Philadelphia's offensive philosophy prioritizing paint touches over perimeter volume.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The data strongly favors the under with positive ROI and consistent underperformance against the 3.0 line. Maxey's role as a penetrating guard limits his three-point volume compared to pure shooters. Best spots emerge when Philadelphia faces elite interior defense that might push him outside, but his natural game flows toward the rim. The main risk is a hot shooting night inflating his attempts, but the 62-game sample provides solid conviction.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Tyrese Maxey's three-pointers made prop shows a 29-33-0 record across 62 games, hitting overs just 46.8% of the time. This translates to missing the over in 33 of 62 opportunities, well below the breakeven threshold.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the under on Tyrese Maxey's three-pointers made props. The data shows consistent underperformance with positive ROI on unders (+1.6%) while overs lose money (-10.7%). His 2.95 average falls short of typical 3.0 lines.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Tyrese Maxey averages 2.95 three-pointers made across all games, exactly 0.1 below the standard 3.0 prop line. This small but consistent gap creates value on the under side throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyrese Maxey under props when Philadelphia faces teams with strong perimeter defense that might limit his three-point opportunities. His natural driving game creates more value attacking the rim than settling for outside shots consistently.