Tyrese Maxey's steals props have delivered exceptional value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 70% clip with a +33.6% ROI. The Philadelphia guard is averaging 1.5 steals against a 1.0 line, creating a meaningful 0.5-steal edge that suggests continued profitability.
Expert Analysis
Maxey's steal production surge represents more than statistical noise—it reflects his evolving defensive role within Philadelphia's system. The 70% over rate across 10 games demonstrates consistency that transcends random variance, particularly when paired with the substantial +0.5 differential between his average (1.5) and the typical line (1.0). This gap suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Maxey's increased defensive aggressiveness, likely stemming from Philadelphia's need for perimeter pressure with Joel Embiid's rim protection anchoring the paint. The current three-game over streak indicates momentum, though the longest under streak of just two games shows he rarely goes cold for extended periods. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the sustainability factor—steals often correlate with increased minutes and usage, both of which Maxey has seen as Philadelphia's primary offensive initiator. The 33.6% ROI on overs versus the brutal -42.7% on unders creates a clear directional edge that smart money should exploit before books adjust their lines upward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Maxey's 1.5 average against 1.0 lines creates legitimate value, supported by his expanded defensive role and three-game hot streak. The 70% hit rate over 10 games isn't sustainable long-term, but the underlying factors suggest continued profitability. Primary risk is regression to his career norms, but Philadelphia's defensive scheme and Maxey's increased court time support the elevated steal numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Maxey has gone over his steals prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% hit rate) with 3 unders. This 7-3-0 record has generated a +33.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors suffered a -42.7% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Maxey's steals props. His 1.5 average against typical 1.0 lines creates a 0.5-steal edge, supported by Philadelphia's defensive system and his expanded role. The 70% recent hit rate and current three-game streak indicate continued value.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Steals last 10 games?
Maxey is averaging 1.5 steals over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.0 line, creating a meaningful +0.5 differential. This gap suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his increased defensive production in Philadelphia's current system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey steals overs when he's seeing expanded minutes as Philadelphia's primary initiator and when books haven't adjusted lines above 1.0. His defensive aggressiveness peaks in games where the 76ers need perimeter pressure to complement interior defense.