Tyrese Maxey's rebounding props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.0% overs across 40 games with a -0.3 average differential. The 76ers guard is currently riding a five-game under streak, and the market consistently overvalues his glass work in these rest situations.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Maxey's rebounding limitations when Philadelphia plays on standard rest. His 3.33 average falls consistently short of the typical 3.62 line, creating sustainable value for under bettors who've enjoyed a 14.6% ROI. This isn't coincidental — guards often see reduced rebounding opportunities on one day rest as teams rely more heavily on their frontcourt players for energy and physicality. Maxey's primary role as a scorer and facilitator means he's often leaking out in transition rather than crashing the boards, particularly when the 76ers have adequate rest to deploy their full rotation. The current five-game under streak reinforces this pattern, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his actual rebounding output in these spots. While regression is always possible, the substantial sample size of 40 games provides confidence that this represents a true market inefficiency rather than random variance. The consistency of his underperformance — hitting the under in 60% of these situations — indicates this is a systematic issue rather than a hot streak that's likely to cool off.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI creates legitimate value, though the modest -0.3 differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target this prop when Maxey's line sits at 3.5 or higher, as the market tends to overestimate his rebounding floor. The main risk is Philadelphia's potential for blowout games where garbage time could inflate his numbers, but the trend's consistency across 40 games suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Rebounds prop record 1 day rest?
Maxey is 16-24-0 on rebounds props with one day rest, hitting the over just 40.0% of the time across 40 games. His average of 3.33 rebounds consistently falls short of the typical 3.62 line, creating a -0.3 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Rebounds 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Maxey's rebounds with one day rest. The 60% under rate and 14.6% ROI provide clear value, especially when his line is set at 3.5 or higher. His guard role and transition-focused style limit rebounding opportunities in standard rest situations.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Rebounds 1 day rest?
Maxey averages 3.33 rebounds on one day rest compared to his typical line of 3.62, creating a -0.3 differential. This consistent underperformance across 40 games indicates the market overvalues his rebounding ability in these rest situations by approximately half a rebound.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey's rebounds props when Philadelphia plays on one day rest and his line is 3.5 or higher. Avoid betting during potential blowout scenarios where garbage time could inflate his numbers, but the trend shows consistency across various game scripts and opponents.