Tyrese Maxey shows solid over value with 2+ days rest, hitting 58.3% of overs (7-5-0 record) while generating +11.4% ROI. Despite averaging 1.8 points below his typical line, the consistent over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Tyrese Maxey's scoring pattern with extended rest reveals an intriguing market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit. The 58.3% over rate across 12 games demonstrates consistent outperformance despite books setting lines 1.8 points above his actual average. This suggests sportsbooks may be overcompensating for rest advantages or failing to account for Maxey's specific usage patterns when fresh. The +11.4% ROI on overs indicates genuine value, while the brutal -20.4% under ROI confirms this isn't random variance. Extended rest typically benefits explosive guards like Maxey, who relies heavily on burst and acceleration to create separation. Fresh legs enhance his three-point shooting mechanics and driving ability, two pillars of his scoring arsenal. The fact that he's consistently exceeding market expectations despite lower raw averages suggests books are pricing in rest benefits incorrectly. However, the recent one-game under streak and limited sample size warrant caution. The trend's sustainability depends on Maxey maintaining his current role and usage rate, particularly with Joel Embiid's health affecting offensive flow. Look for this edge to persist until books adjust their rest-based pricing models.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% hit rate and +11.4% ROI demonstrate clear market value despite the negative scoring differential. Target overs when Maxey faces pace-up spots or defensively vulnerable opponents, as fresh legs amplify his scoring ceiling. Main risk is small sample size and potential line adjustments as books recognize the pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 28.5 | 5.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 27.5 | 29.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 28.5 | 28.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 26.5 | 33.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 28.5 | 22.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 25.5 | 32.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 32.5 | 35.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 25.5 | 27.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 25.5 | 21.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 24.5 | 26.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-25 | OPP | 27.5 | 28.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 25.5 | 18.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Points prop record 2+ days rest?
Tyrese Maxey has gone over his points total 7 times in 12 games with 2+ days rest, posting a 58.3% over rate. This translates to a 7-5-0 record and +11.4% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Points 2+ days rest?
Bet the over on Maxey's points with 2+ days rest. The 58.3% hit rate and positive ROI indicate market inefficiency. Target favorable matchups against weak defenses or pace-up spots for maximum value.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Points 2+ days rest?
Maxey averages 25.33 points with 2+ days rest compared to his typical line of 27.17, creating a -1.8 differential. Despite scoring below the line on average, he hits overs 58.3% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey points overs when he has 2+ days rest facing pace-up teams or defensively vulnerable opponents. Extended rest enhances his burst and shooting, creating the best conditions for ceiling games and over hits.