Tyrese Maxey's home assists prop presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 45.5% overs across 33 games with a -13.2% ROI on the over. The 6.52 average barely clears the typical 6.29 line, creating consistent value on unders at home.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Tyrese Maxey's home assist production that contradicts casual expectations. While many assume guards perform better at home, Maxey's 15-18 over record reveals the opposite trend. The modest 0.23 differential between his 6.52 average and the 6.29 line creates a razor-thin margin that consistently favors the under. This pattern likely stems from Philadelphia's home offensive dynamics, where Maxey operates as more of a scorer when the crowd energizes the team. The 76ers' pace and ball movement at home may actually reduce Maxey's assist opportunities as teammates become more aggressive in their own scoring. The -13.2% ROI on overs demonstrates that sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to this home/road split in Maxey's playmaking role. With Joel Embiid's presence affecting offensive flow and James Harden's departure changing assist distribution, Maxey's role has evolved but the market hasn't caught up. The consistency of this trend across 33 games suggests structural factors rather than random variance. Home games create specific matchup dynamics where Maxey's scoring takes precedence over facilitating, making the under a repeatable edge rather than a temporary anomaly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54.5% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge on Tyrese Maxey's home assists props. Target unders when the line sits at 6.5 or higher, particularly against teams that force Philadelphia into more isolation-heavy offense. The primary risk is small sample variance, but 33 games provides reasonable confidence in this home trend continuing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Assists prop record home games?
Maxey's assists prop record at home shows 15 overs and 18 unders across 33 games, translating to a 45.5% over rate. This under-heavy performance has generated a -13.2% ROI for over bettors while producing +4.1% returns on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Assists home games?
Bet the under on Maxey's assists at home games. The 54.5% under rate with positive ROI creates a clear edge, especially when lines are set at 6.5 or higher. Avoid overs unless you have specific matchup intel suggesting increased playmaking opportunities.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Assists home games?
Maxey averages 6.52 assists in home games compared to the typical 6.29 line, creating just a 0.23 differential. This narrow margin consistently favors unders despite the slightly higher average, as the distribution skews toward lower assist totals more frequently than expected.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey assists unders at home when facing teams that force isolation offense or when Philadelphia is favored by large margins. Avoid betting during back-to-back situations or when key teammates are injured, as these factors can unpredictably alter his playmaking role.