Tyrese Maxey's assists prop presents a perfectly balanced market with a 46.8% over rate across 62 games, hitting exactly his 6.19 average line. The -10.7% ROI on overs versus +1.6% on unders reveals slight market inefficiency favoring the under side.
Expert Analysis
Tyrese Maxey's assists market demonstrates remarkable equilibrium, with his 6.19 average matching the typical line exactly across 62 games. This precision suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced his playmaking output, but the ROI differential tells a deeper story. The -10.7% return on overs indicates bettors consistently overestimate Maxey's ability to exceed his assist line, while the modest +1.6% under return suggests more disciplined pricing on that side. Maxey's role as Philadelphia's primary ball-handler creates natural assist opportunities, but his score-first mentality often limits his distribution ceiling. The current two-game over streak follows a longer six-game under run, highlighting the volatility inherent in assist props. Without Joel Embiid's consistent presence, Maxey has shouldered more offensive responsibility, but this hasn't translated to significantly higher assist totals. His assist production remains tied to game flow, opponent pace, and whether Philadelphia builds early leads that encourage ball movement. The lack of dramatic splits or situational edges reinforces that this market operates efficiently, with both sides offering near-even value propositions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -10.7% over ROI versus +1.6% under ROI indicates consistent market overvaluation of Maxey's assist ceiling. While his average perfectly matches the line, the betting public's tendency to back overs creates slight value on unders. Target games where Philadelphia faces slower-paced opponents or when Maxey enters with elevated scoring usage that could limit his playmaking focus.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Assists prop record all games?
Maxey has gone over his assists prop in 29 of 62 games (46.8%) this season, with 33 unders. His -10.7% ROI on overs shows consistent market overvaluation of his playmaking ceiling.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Assists all games?
Lean under on Maxey's assists props. The -10.7% over ROI versus +1.6% under ROI indicates the market consistently overprices his assist ceiling, creating slight value on the under side.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Assists all games?
Maxey averages exactly 6.19 assists per game, perfectly matching his typical prop line of 6.19. This precise alignment shows oddsmakers have accurately assessed his playmaking output level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey assist unders when Philadelphia faces slower-paced teams or when he enters games with elevated scoring usage. His score-first mentality often limits assist production in high-usage offensive games.