Tyrese Haliburton's steal production surges with one day of rest, hitting the over in 61.1% of games (22-14 record) while averaging 1.36 steals against a typical 1.08 line. This +0.28 differential represents genuine value with strong ROI backing. Lean Over on Haliburton steal props in this spot.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's steal production with one day rest reveals a compelling pattern rooted in defensive positioning and energy management. The 1.36 average against a 1.08 line isn't just statistical noise—it reflects how rest impacts his ability to maintain aggressive defensive pressure throughout games. As Indiana's primary ball-handler, Haliburton often conserves energy on defense during back-to-backs, but with rest he can afford to gamble more in passing lanes and apply full-court pressure. The 61.1% over rate across 36 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +16.7% ROI demonstrates real market inefficiency. The trend shows consistency rather than volatility, with his longest over streak reaching seven games compared to just four unders. This suggests the rest advantage compounds—when Haliburton is fresh, he stays aggressive defensively, leading to sustained steal production. The key risk lies in blowout scenarios where defensive intensity naturally decreases, but Indiana's competitive season keeps most games meaningful. Sportsbooks appear slow to adjust lines adequately for this rest-based edge, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors who recognize how recovery time directly translates to defensive activity for high-usage guards like Haliburton.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Haliburton's 1.36 average with one day rest significantly outpaces typical 1.08 lines, creating a +0.28 edge backed by 61.1% over rate across 36 games. The ideal spot combines this rest advantage with competitive game script against pace-up opponents. Main risk involves potential blowouts reducing defensive intensity, but Indiana's playoff positioning keeps most games competitive enough for sustained steal opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Haliburton goes over his steals prop 61.1% of the time with one day rest, posting a 22-14-0 record across 36 games. This represents a strong edge with meaningful sample size backing the trend's reliability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Steals 1 day rest?
Bet the over on Haliburton's steals with one day rest. His 1.36 average significantly exceeds typical 1.08 lines, supported by 61.1% over rate and positive ROI. The rest advantage is quantifiable and persistent.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Steals 1 day rest?
Haliburton averages 1.36 steals with one day rest compared to typical 1.08 lines, creating a +0.28 differential. This edge represents genuine value as rest allows sustained defensive aggression throughout games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton steal overs specifically with one day rest in competitive games. Avoid back-to-backs where energy conservation limits defensive gambling, and be cautious in potential blowout scenarios that reduce intensity.