Tyrese Haliburton's steals prop at home presents a compelling over opportunity with a 60.7% hit rate (17-11-0) and strong +15.9% ROI. Averaging 1.5 steals against a 1.18 line creates consistent value. Lean over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's home steals advantage stems from multiple converging factors that create sustainable edge. Playing at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, he benefits from familiar defensive rotations and crowd energy that elevates his anticipation timing. The 0.32 differential between his 1.5 average and 1.18 line represents significant market inefficiency, suggesting books undervalue his home defensive impact. His point guard position naturally generates steal opportunities through ball pressure and passing lane disruption, while Indiana's up-tempo home style increases possession count and transition chances. The 60.7% over rate across 28 games indicates genuine skill-based consistency rather than random variance. Current three-game over streak aligns with seasonal patterns, though regression risk exists given the extended sample size. Most concerning is the lack of split data to identify optimal matchup spots, making game-by-game evaluation crucial. However, the robust ROI differential (+15.9% over vs -25.0% under) demonstrates clear market mispricing. Haliburton's defensive instincts and court vision translate particularly well to home environments where he reads opposing offensive sets with greater familiarity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60.7% hit rate and +15.9% ROI create legitimate value despite the inflated line movement risk. Target games against turnover-prone guards or high-pace opponents where Haliburton's anticipation skills maximize. Primary concern is potential line adjustment as books catch up to this trend, making early week action optimal.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Tyrese Haliburton props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Steals prop record home games?
Haliburton's home steals prop shows a 17-11-0 over/under record (60.7% overs) across 28 games. He's averaging 1.5 steals per home game against typical lines of 1.18, creating a +0.32 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Steals home games?
Bet the over on Haliburton's steals props at home. The 60.7% hit rate and +15.9% ROI provide clear mathematical advantage, especially when targeting pace-up matchups or turnover-prone opposing guards.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Steals home games?
Haliburton averages 1.5 steals per home game compared to the typical 1.18 line, creating a +0.32 differential. This gap represents significant value as books consistently underestimate his home defensive impact.
How reliable is this trend?
Target early-week games before potential line adjustments, focusing on matchups against high-turnover teams or pace-up spots. Avoid back-to-back situations where defensive intensity typically drops for point guards.