Tyrese Haliburton's scoring props have been profitable fade opportunities over his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time with a 4-6 over/under record. Despite averaging 19.7 points against an 18.9 line, the under bets have generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%. The data suggests consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's recent scoring pattern reveals a classic case where raw averages mask betting value. While his 19.7 point average exceeds the typical 18.9 line by 0.8 points, this differential is driven by a few explosive performances rather than consistent scoring above expectations. The 60% under rate indicates oddsmakers are consistently overvaluing his scoring ceiling, likely influenced by his elite playmaking reputation and occasional scoring outbursts. The current two-game under streak aligns with his broader pattern of inconsistent scoring volume. As Indiana's primary facilitator, Haliburton's scoring often takes a backseat when teammates are shooting well, creating natural volatility that books haven't fully captured. The 14.6% ROI on unders suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic mispricing. His role as a pass-first point guard means his scoring is highly dependent on game flow and teammate performance, factors that create inherent unpredictability in his offensive output. The absence of extended over streaks (longest is just one game) further supports the thesis that his scoring consistency is overrated by the market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI suggests systematic overvaluation of Haliburton's scoring props. Target unders when the line sits at 19+ points, particularly in games where Indiana faces strong defensive teams or when his supporting cast is healthy. The main risk is his ceiling game potential, as elite point guards can explode for 25+ on any given night when the game script demands it.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 21.5 | 9.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 19.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 18.5 | 22.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 18.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 29.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 19.5 | 19.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 17.5 | 35.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 18.5 | 19.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Points prop record last 10 games?
Haliburton has gone 4-6 over/under on his points props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. He's averaging 19.7 points against typical lines around 18.9, but the under bets have been more profitable despite the higher average.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Points last 10 games?
Lean under on Haliburton's points props. The 60% under rate and 14.6% ROI on under bets over his last 10 games suggests oddsmakers are consistently overvaluing his scoring output, making unders the profitable play.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Points last 10 games?
Haliburton is averaging 19.7 points over his last 10 games, which is 0.8 points above his typical line of 18.9. However, this average is misleading as it's driven by a few big games rather than consistent over performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton under bets when lines are set at 19+ points and Indiana faces strong defensive teams. His pass-first approach means scoring takes a backseat when teammates are performing well, creating consistent under value.