Tyrese Haliburton's home assists props present a compelling over opportunity with a 63.9% hit rate (23-13-0) and +22.0% ROI. The Pacers' floor general averages 11.33 assists at home against an 11.0 line, creating consistent value. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's home assist dominance stems from Indiana's uptempo system and his role as the primary facilitator in familiar surroundings. The 11.33 average against an 11.0 line creates a mathematical edge, but the +0.3 differential is modest enough to suggest the market recognizes his home court advantage. The 63.9% over rate indicates genuine skill-based persistence rather than variance, as Haliburton benefits from knowing his teammates' tendencies and preferred spots on their home floor. Indiana's pace increases at home, generating more possessions for assist opportunities, while Haliburton's court vision and passing lanes improve with crowd energy and rhythm. The current four-game over streak aligns with his seasonal pattern, though regression risk exists given the modest line differential. His assist totals correlate strongly with Indiana's offensive efficiency, which historically improves at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The lack of significant under streaks (longest: 2) suggests consistency rather than volatility. Key concerns include potential rest games and blowout scenarios where fourth-quarter minutes decrease, but Haliburton's early-game assist accumulation typically provides cushion against these risks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 63.9% hit rate and +22.0% ROI create legitimate value, supported by Haliburton's enhanced playmaking in Indiana's home environment. Target games against pace-up opponents or defensively challenged teams where assist opportunities multiply. Primary risk involves the modest +0.3 average differential leaving little margin for off-nights or reduced minutes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 14.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 11.5 | 14.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Assists prop record home games?
Haliburton's assists prop record at home is exceptional at 23-13-0 over/under (63.9% overs). He averages 11.33 assists against an 11.0 line, generating a +22.0% ROI on overs and demonstrating consistent home court advantage.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Assists home games?
Bet over on Haliburton's assists at home with medium confidence. The 63.9% hit rate and positive line differential create legitimate value, especially against pace-up opponents where additional possessions amplify his playmaking opportunities.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Assists home games?
Haliburton averages 11.33 assists in home games, creating a +0.3 differential above the typical 11.0 line. This modest edge reflects his enhanced court vision and teammate chemistry in familiar surroundings at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton assists overs in home games against defensively weak or pace-up opponents. His four-game over streak and 63.9% seasonal rate suggest consistent value, particularly in competitive games where he plays full minutes.