Tyrese Haliburton's assists prop shows a modest edge toward overs, hitting 55.1% across 69 games with a 38-31-0 record. The Pacers' point guard averages 10.99 assists against a 10.93 line, creating a slight positive differential. This represents a lean over opportunity with consistent volume.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's assists trend reflects his role as Indiana's primary facilitator in their uptempo system. The 55.1% over rate isn't overwhelming but represents genuine value when combined with the +5.1% ROI on overs versus the brutal -14.2% under returns. His 10.99 average against the 10.93 line suggests books are pricing him accurately, making this more about game script and pace than systematic mispricing. The Pacers' offensive identity revolves around ball movement and transition opportunities, creating natural assist inflation for Haliburton. His playmaking responsibilities rarely diminish regardless of game situation, as Indiana lacks secondary creators who can consistently generate for others. The current two-game over streak aligns with historical patterns showing he can sustain assist production even when defenses key on him. However, the modest edge means game-specific factors like opponent pace, back-to-back scheduling, and Indiana's health become crucial variables. The lack of extreme streaks in either direction (longest over streak of six, under streak of four) suggests sustainable production rather than volatile swings that create betting opportunities through overreaction.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Haliburton's assists prop offers legitimate value based on his consistent playmaking role and Indiana's system that maximizes his distribution opportunities. The 55.1% hit rate combined with positive ROI on overs creates a sustainable edge. Target games against faster-paced opponents or when the Pacers are healthy and running their full offensive sets. Main risk is lineup changes or blowout scenarios limiting his minutes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 14.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 14.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 12.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 10.5 | 5.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Assists prop record all games?
Haliburton's assists prop shows a 38-31-0 record across 69 games, hitting overs at a 55.1% rate. This represents a modest but consistent edge toward the over with a +5.1% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Assists all games?
Lean over on Haliburton's assists props. His 55.1% over rate and positive ROI create sustainable value, especially in pace-up spots. Avoid in potential blowouts or when key teammates are injured.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Assists all games?
Haliburton averages 10.99 assists per game against a typical line of 10.93. This tight 0.06 differential suggests accurate market pricing but still favors the over with consistent volume production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton assists overs against fast-paced opponents or when Indiana has their full roster healthy. Avoid back-to-back games or potential blowout scenarios where his minutes could be limited significantly.