Tyler Herro's three-pointers made prop shows a clear under bias in home games, going 10-14-0 for just 41.7% overs with a devastating -20.4% ROI on overs. Despite averaging exactly 3.08 threes to match typical lines, the distribution heavily favors under bettors with +11.4% returns.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fascinating disconnect between Tyler Herro's home three-point average and actual betting outcomes. While Herro averages exactly 3.08 made threes at home—perfectly aligned with standard prop lines—the under has cashed 58.3% of the time with profitable returns. This suggests oddsmakers are setting lines based on raw averages without accounting for Herro's inconsistent shooting patterns at home. The seven-game under streak within this sample indicates prolonged cold stretches that devastate over bettors. Home court advantage typically boosts shooting confidence, but Herro appears to experience the opposite effect, possibly due to pressure or altered shot selection in front of Miami crowds. The lack of recent form data prevents deeper context, but the sustained under performance across 24 games represents a meaningful sample size. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of this trend—even when Herro connects on threes, he's often falling just short of inflated lines. The -20.4% ROI on overs reflects not just frequency but magnitude of losses, suggesting Herro's home three-point props are systematically overvalued by the market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% under rate combined with +11.4% ROI creates a sustainable edge against consistently overpriced lines. Target this play when Herro's prop sits at 3.0 or higher, as the market continues overvaluing his home three-point production. Main risk is regression to his season average, but the sample size and ROI differential suggest structural mispricing rather than variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Herro's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Tyler Herro's Three Pointers Made prop in home games shows a 10-14-0 record, hitting overs just 41.7% of the time. This translates to unders cashing 58.3% of games with a profitable +11.4% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Herro 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Tyler Herro's Three Pointers Made in home games. The 58.3% under rate and +11.4% ROI indicate systematic overpricing by oddsmakers, creating consistent value on the under side of his props.
What's Tyler Herro's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Tyler Herro averages exactly 3.08 Three Pointers Made in home games, perfectly matching typical prop lines of 3.0-3.5. However, this average masks inconsistent performance that favors under bettors despite the neutral differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Herro Three Pointers Made unders when his home prop is set at 3.0 or higher. The market consistently overvalues his home shooting, creating the best value when lines match or exceed his season average.