Tyler Herro has hit the over on his points prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30.0% success rate), averaging 18.7 points against a 23.9 line for a massive -5.2 differential. This represents a clear under trend with exceptional value at +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Herro's points production has cratered over his last 10 games, creating one of the most profitable under trends in the NBA. The 5.2-point gap between his actual scoring (18.7) and the betting line (23.9) suggests oddsmakers are still pricing Herro based on earlier season performance rather than his current reality. This isn't a minor cold streak—hitting just 30% of overs indicates a fundamental shift in Herro's role or efficiency that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. The -42.7% ROI for overs demonstrates how punishing this trend has been for those betting on Herro to exceed expectations. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance. While hot shooters can go cold temporarily, a 10-game sample with such dramatic underperformance typically reflects deeper issues—whether injury-related, role changes, or team dynamics affecting his shot opportunities. The longest under streak reached 3 games, showing this isn't just variance but a sustained pattern. However, regression concerns are real when dealing with a proven scorer like Herro. Miami's offensive system and his historical production suggest this level of underperformance may not be sustainable long-term.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 5.2-point differential and 33.6% under ROI create compelling value, but Herro's scoring pedigree demands caution. Target spots where Miami faces elite defenses or plays in pace-down environments to maximize the edge. The main risk is immediate positive regression from a proven 20+ PPG scorer who may be due for a breakout performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 24.5 | 27.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-25 | OPP | 22.5 | 20.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 23.5 | 8.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 23.5 | 29.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 26.5 | 16.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 23.5 | 11.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 23.5 | 18.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 23.5 | 26.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 23.5 | 15.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 24.5 | 17.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Herro's Points prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Herro has gone over his points prop just 3 times in his last 10 games, posting a 30.0% over rate with a 3-7-0 record. This represents significant underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Herro Points last 10 games?
Lean under on Tyler Herro's points props based on his 5.2-point average deficit and 33.6% under ROI. However, use medium confidence due to his proven scoring ability and potential for positive regression.
What's Tyler Herro's average Points last 10 games?
Tyler Herro is averaging 18.7 points over his last 10 games compared to a typical line of 23.9 points, creating a -5.2 differential that heavily favors under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Herro under props when Miami faces elite defenses or plays in slower-paced games. Avoid spots after extended rest where he might be due for positive regression from his recent struggles.