Tyler Herro has been a blocks under goldmine, hitting just 1 of 10 overs (10.0%) with a devastating 0.1 average against a 0.5 line. The under delivers +71.8% ROI while overs bleed -80.9%. This is a clear fade-the-blocks situation.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Herro's blocks production has been historically anemic, and the numbers reveal why this prop represents one of the most reliable under bets in the NBA. Averaging just 0.1 blocks per game against a 0.5 line creates a massive -0.4 differential that screams systematic mispricing. Guards naturally record fewer blocks due to positioning and defensive responsibilities, but Herro's complete absence from shot-blocking is extreme even by backcourt standards. His 6'5" frame and perimeter-focused defensive role keep him away from rim protection opportunities. The 7-game under streak within this sample isn't just variance—it reflects Herro's fundamental role in Miami's defensive scheme. He's tasked with chasing shooters and fighting through screens, not providing help defense or challenging shots at the rim. The Heat's defensive system emphasizes switching and perimeter containment, further limiting Herro's block opportunities. With only one game reaching the over in 10 attempts, this isn't a player experiencing a cold streak but rather someone whose skill set and usage simply don't align with blocks production. The market appears to be pricing this prop based on general guard expectations rather than Herro's specific defensive profile and role.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Tyler Herro's 0.1 blocks average against a 0.5 line creates an enormous edge that reflects his actual defensive role rather than market perception. The 90% under rate isn't variance—it's systematic value. Target this prop when available, especially in games where Miami faces perimeter-heavy offenses that keep Herro on the perimeter. The main risk is an unusually physical game creating garbage-time block opportunities, but even then, Herro's positioning makes blocks unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Herro's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Herro has gone 1-9-0 on blocks overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's averaging only 0.1 blocks per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential that heavily favors the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Herro Blocks last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Tyler Herro blocks props with high confidence. His 90% under rate and 0.1 average against a 0.5 line creates exceptional value. The +71.8% ROI on unders versus -80.9% on overs makes this a clear systematic edge.
What's Tyler Herro's average Blocks last 10 games?
Tyler Herro averages just 0.1 blocks per game over his last 10 contests, well below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.4 differential represents one of the largest gaps between production and market expectation for any prop bet available.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Herro blocks unders consistently, especially against perimeter-heavy offenses that keep him on the outside. The prop offers value regardless of matchup due to his defensive role, but avoid games with potential blowouts where garbage time might create unusual opportunities.