Tyler Herro's blocks prop at home represents one of the strongest under bets in the NBA, going 1-10-0 with just a 9.1% over rate. His 0.09 average sits 0.4 blocks below the typical 0.5 line, generating massive -82.6% ROI on overs. This is a clear systematic under play.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Herro's blocks production at home reveals a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. Averaging just 0.09 blocks per home game against a standard 0.5 line, Herro has managed just one over in eleven games tracked. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by his role and physical limitations. As Miami's primary offensive initiator at home, Herro operates predominantly on the perimeter, rarely venturing into shot-blocking positions. His 6'5" frame and guard responsibilities keep him away from rim protection duties, which fall to Miami's frontcourt players. The current nine-game under streak isn't anomalous but rather indicative of how rarely Herro finds himself in blocking situations during home games. The sample size of eleven games provides sufficient data to establish this pattern, particularly given the consistency of the results. Market makers appear slow to adjust this line downward, creating persistent value on the under. The -82.6% ROI on overs demonstrates just how misaligned the pricing remains. Unless Miami dramatically alters their defensive scheme or Herro's role shifts significantly, this trend should continue. The 73.5% ROI on unders represents exceptional value for a prop bet with this level of consistency.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Tyler Herro's blocks under at home games offers elite value with a 90.9% hit rate and 73.5% ROI. The fundamental disconnect between his perimeter role and shot-blocking requirements makes this trend sustainable. Bet the under whenever available, especially at 0.5 blocks. Primary risk is Miami implementing zone defense that could create more help situations, but their current system strongly favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Herro's Blocks prop record home games?
Tyler Herro's blocks prop record in home games stands at 1-10-0 over/under, representing just a 9.1% over rate. He's currently riding a nine-game under streak, with only one over recorded in the eleven-game sample from December 2022 through April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Herro Blocks home games?
Bet the under on Tyler Herro's blocks in home games with high confidence. His 90.9% under rate and 73.5% ROI on unders make this one of the strongest systematic plays available. The 0.41 block differential below the line provides exceptional value.
What's Tyler Herro's average Blocks home games?
Tyler Herro averages 0.09 blocks per home game, sitting 0.41 blocks below the typical 0.5 line. This massive differential represents one of the largest gaps between player production and market pricing, creating consistent under value for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Tyler Herro blocks under whenever he's playing at home, particularly at the standard 0.5 line. The trend shows no signs of regression given his role, and the market hasn't adjusted pricing despite overwhelming evidence. Avoid if the line drops to 0.5.