Trey Murphy III's three-pointers made prop on one day rest presents a perfectly balanced 7-7 record with minimal edge either direction. The 2.86 average barely exceeds typical lines, while a current four-game under streak suggests short-term momentum. This is a clear pass situation lacking meaningful betting value.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating equilibrium in Murphy's three-point performance following one day of rest. His 2.86 average represents just a 0.1 advantage over standard lines, indicating oddsmakers have accurately priced this situation. The 50% over rate across 14 games suggests no systematic edge exists based purely on rest patterns. However, the current four-game under streak warrants attention, as it represents the longest cold stretch in this sample. This could indicate either a temporary shooting slump or defensive adjustments teams are making against Murphy in these rest scenarios. The -4.5% ROI on both sides confirms the market efficiency, but also highlights how even small edges can be eroded by juice. Murphy's three-point variance appears more dependent on matchup-specific factors like opposing perimeter defense and pace rather than rest advantages. Without additional context about opponent quality or home/road splits, the rest factor alone provides insufficient predictive value. The streak creates mild contrarian appeal for an over bet, but regression to his season mean seems more likely than continued cold shooting.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 7-7 record and minimal 0.1 average differential indicate no systematic edge exists in Murphy's three-point performance on one day rest. While the four-game under streak creates contrarian appeal, the sample size suggests regression toward his established mean rather than exploitable market inefficiency. Wait for more favorable spots with clearer directional edges.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Murphy's three-pointers made prop on one day rest shows a perfectly balanced 7-7 over/under record across 14 games. His 2.86 average barely exceeds typical lines by 0.1, indicating efficient market pricing with no clear directional advantage.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Pass on Murphy's three-pointers made prop with one day rest. The 50% over rate and minimal edge provide no betting value. The current four-game under streak lacks sufficient context to justify contrarian positioning against market efficiency.
What's Trey Murphy III's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Murphy averages 2.86 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to typical lines around 2.79. This microscopic 0.1 differential indicates the rest factor provides negligible predictive advantage and suggests accurate oddsmaker pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Murphy's three-point props based solely on rest patterns. Instead, focus on matchup-specific factors like opposing perimeter defense rankings, pace differentials, and home/road splits where clearer edges may exist beyond rest considerations.