Trey Murphy III's steals props present a clear under opportunity with just 36.4% overs across 11 games. Murphy averages 0.82 steals against a 1.05 line, creating a -0.23 differential that has generated 21.5% ROI on unders. The under trend shows strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
Murphy's steals struggles stem from his evolving role as New Orleans' primary wing scorer rather than a defensive disruptor. His 0.82 steal average reflects a player whose defensive focus has shifted toward team concepts and help defense rather than aggressive ball-hawking. The 1.05 line appears inflated based on Murphy's previous defensive reputation, but his current usage pattern prioritizes offensive efficiency and staying out of foul trouble. Murphy's 6'9" frame makes him effective in passing lanes, but the Pelicans deploy him more as a rim protector and rebounder than a perimeter thief. The consistency of this trend across 11 games suggests a fundamental shift in his defensive approach rather than temporary variance. With New Orleans often playing from behind, Murphy's minutes are increasingly focused on scoring and floor spacing, limiting his opportunities for aggressive steal attempts. The three-game under streak aligns with this role evolution, and the books haven't fully adjusted to Murphy's reduced steal production in his expanded offensive role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Murphy's role as New Orleans' primary wing scorer has fundamentally reduced his steal opportunities, creating sustainable value on unders. The 0.82 average against a 1.05 line represents a meaningful edge, particularly when Murphy faces high-usage games where his offensive responsibilities increase. Main risk is a defensive-minded game script where Murphy returns to more aggressive perimeter defense.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Steals prop record all games?
Murphy's steals record shows 4 overs and 7 unders across 11 games, hitting just 36.4% overs. He averages 0.82 steals per game against a typical 1.05 line, creating a -0.23 differential that consistently favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Steals all games?
Bet the under on Murphy's steals props. His 0.82 average against 1.05 lines creates clear value, supported by his evolved role focusing on offense rather than aggressive defense. The 21.5% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable edge.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Steals all games?
Murphy averages 0.82 steals per game, significantly below the typical 1.05 line. This -0.23 differential represents one of the more reliable gaps between production and market expectations, driven by his expanded offensive responsibilities reducing defensive aggression.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murphy steals unders when New Orleans faces high-scoring opponents requiring maximum offensive output. His steal rate drops further when the Pelicans need his scoring, making these game scripts ideal for under value.