Trey Murphy III's blocks prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 20% overs hitting across his last 10 games. The Pelicans forward has gone under in six consecutive contests while averaging exactly 0.5 blocks against the standard 0.5 line. This defensive consistency points toward continued under value.
Expert Analysis
Trey Murphy III's blocks production reveals a player whose defensive impact doesn't translate to counting stats in this category. At 6'9" with decent length, Murphy theoretically possesses shot-blocking tools, but his role as a perimeter-oriented forward limits rim protection opportunities. The Pelicans deploy Murphy primarily as a floor-spacer and secondary scorer, positioning him away from the basket where blocks naturally occur. His 0.5 blocks per game average perfectly matches the betting line, but the distribution heavily favors zero-block performances. The six-game under streak isn't coincidental—it reflects Murphy's consistent playing style and positioning. New Orleans often uses traditional centers like Jonas Valanciunas or smaller lineups that push Murphy to the wing, reducing his chances for weak-side help defense. The 20% over rate suggests books may be overvaluing Murphy's physical tools while underestimating how his actual role limits block opportunities. This isn't a hot streak likely to regress; it's a fundamental reflection of how Murphy impacts games through shooting and versatility rather than rim protection.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Murphy's role-based limitations in generating blocks create sustainable value on the under, supported by his current six-game streak and 20% over rate. The ideal betting spot comes when the line stays at 0.5, as his positioning and playing style consistently favor zero-block performances. Main risk involves potential lineup changes that could move Murphy closer to the rim, but his current usage pattern strongly supports continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Trey Murphy III has gone 2-8-0 on his blocks over/under in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs. He's currently on a six-game under streak, with his longest over streak reaching only two games during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Blocks last 10 games?
Bet the under on Trey Murphy III's blocks prop. His 20% over rate and six-game under streak reflect his perimeter role limiting shot-blocking opportunities. The +52.7% ROI on unders provides clear mathematical edge over the -61.8% ROI on overs.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Blocks last 10 games?
Trey Murphy III averages exactly 0.5 blocks over his last 10 games, matching the standard betting line perfectly. However, this average masks a distribution heavily weighted toward zero-block performances, creating under value despite the neutral differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murphy's blocks unders when he's positioned as a perimeter player in standard Pelicans lineups. Avoid when New Orleans uses smaller lineups that might push him closer to the rim or when facing teams that attack the basket frequently.