Trey Murphy III's blocks prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 20.0% overs across 10 games. The Pelicans forward averages exactly 0.5 blocks against the standard 0.5 line, but the consistency favors the under with a current six-game streak. This defensive metric shows clear directional value.
Expert Analysis
Trey Murphy III's blocks production reveals a player whose defensive impact doesn't translate to consistent shot-blocking numbers. At 6'9" with solid length, Murphy possesses the physical tools for rim protection, yet his 0.5 blocks average exactly matches the betting line while hitting over just twice in 10 tracked games. The six-game under streak isn't coincidental—Murphy's role as a floor-spacing forward keeps him away from the paint where blocks naturally occur. His defensive value comes through perimeter defense and help rotations rather than rim deterrence. The Pelicans' system emphasizes switching and positioning over aggressive shot-blocking, particularly from their versatile forwards. Murphy's minutes often come alongside true centers like Jonas Valanciunas or backup bigs who handle primary rim protection duties. The 20.0% over rate suggests this isn't random variance but reflects his actual playing style and defensive responsibilities. When Murphy does record blocks, they typically come from help defense or transition situations rather than consistent paint presence. The -61.8% ROI on overs indicates the market may be overvaluing his shot-blocking potential based on size rather than role. This trend appears sustainable given his established position in New Orleans' defensive scheme.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Trey Murphy III's blocks under trend reflects his actual defensive role rather than market expectations based on size. The 20.0% over rate and six-game under streak indicate sustainable value, particularly when Murphy plays alongside traditional centers. Primary risk comes from increased minutes in small-ball lineups or garbage-time situations where he might see more paint time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Blocks prop record all games?
Trey Murphy III holds a 2-8-0 record on blocks props across 10 games, hitting over just 20.0% of the time. He's currently riding a six-game under streak with only two overs total in the sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Blocks all games?
Bet under on Trey Murphy III blocks props. The 20.0% over rate and sustainable six-game streak reflect his perimeter-focused defensive role rather than rim protection, creating consistent value on the under.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Blocks all games?
Trey Murphy III averages exactly 0.5 blocks per game, matching the standard 0.5 betting line perfectly. Despite the neutral differential, the under hits 80.0% of the time due to his floor-spacing role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trey Murphy III blocks unders when he starts alongside traditional centers like Valanciunas, keeping him on the perimeter. Avoid when injuries force small-ball lineups that might increase his paint presence.