Trey Murphy III's assists props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.7% of overs across 15 games with a -0.1 average differential below the typical 2.97 line. The Pelicans forward's role as a spot-up shooter limits playmaking upside, making the under the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
Trey Murphy III's assist production reflects his defined role in New Orleans' offense as a floor-spacing wing rather than a primary facilitator. At 2.87 assists per game against a 2.97 line, Murphy consistently falls short of market expectations by nearly a tenth of an assist nightly. This isn't coincidental—Murphy's skill set centers on catch-and-shoot opportunities, with the Pelicans utilizing him primarily as a release valve in their motion offense rather than asking him to create for others. The -10.9% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Murphy's limited playmaking responsibilities. His current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, as books continue setting lines that overestimate his assist ceiling. Unlike versatile forwards who can slide into point-forward roles, Murphy's value comes from his shooting efficiency and defensive versatility, not ball distribution. The consistency of this trend across 15 games suggests structural factors rather than temporary variance, with Murphy's role unlikely to expand significantly given New Orleans' established hierarchy and his strengths as an off-ball contributor.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Murphy's 46.7% over rate and negative differential reflect a market inefficiency where books overvalue his playmaking potential. The under offers steady value given his defined role as a shooter-first wing. Main risk is potential lineup changes forcing Murphy into more ball-handling duties, but his current usage pattern strongly favors staying below the number.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Assists prop record all games?
Trey Murphy III has gone under his assists prop in 8 of 15 games (53.3% under rate) with a 7-8-0 record. He's averaging 2.87 assists against lines typically set around 2.97, creating consistent value on the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Assists all games?
Bet the under on Murphy's assists props. His 46.7% over rate and -0.1 differential below the line reflect his limited playmaking role as a spot-up shooter, making unders the profitable long-term strategy.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Assists all games?
Murphy averages 2.87 assists per game, which runs 0.1 below the typical 2.97 line. This small but consistent gap has created profitable under opportunities across his 15-game sample with steady negative value on overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murphy assists unders consistently, as his role remains stable regardless of matchup. His spot-up shooting responsibilities limit playmaking upside, making this prop less matchup-dependent than traditional facilitators and creating steady under value.