Tre Jones has cleared his steals line in 60% of his last 10 games, posting a solid 6-4 over record with a +14.6% ROI on overs. His 1.0 steal average slightly exceeds the typical 0.9 line, creating a small but consistent edge for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
Jones's modest over rate reflects his role as a defensive-minded backup point guard who generates steals through smart positioning rather than gambling for interceptions. The 1.0 steal average against a 0.9 line suggests books are slightly undervaluing his defensive impact, likely because steals are inherently volatile and Jones doesn't have the flashy steal numbers that draw attention. His 60% over rate indicates legitimate skill rather than random variance, as backup guards often face weaker opposing ball-handlers and can afford to take more defensive risks without worrying about foul trouble. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates real value, while the -23.6% under ROI shows the market inefficiency. However, the small sample size and narrow margin above the line create risk. Jones's steal production likely correlates with pace and opponent turnovers, making game script crucial. Fast-paced games against turnover-prone teams should boost his opportunities, while slow, methodical opponents could limit his chances. The recent one-game under streak isn't concerning given his longer three-game over streak earlier in the sample.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Jones consistently produces around one steal per game while books set his line at 0.9, creating a small but exploitable edge. Target games against pace-pushing teams or opponents with high turnover rates. The main risk is the inherently volatile nature of steals and the narrow margin for error with such a tight line differential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Tre Jones has gone over his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% over rate. His under record is 4-6, showing a clear lean toward overs with solid consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones Steals last 10 games?
Bet over on Tre Jones steals props. His 1.0 average beats the typical 0.9 line, he's hitting overs 60% of the time, and over bettors are seeing a +14.6% return on investment.
What's Tre Jones's average Steals last 10 games?
Tre Jones averages exactly 1.0 steals per game over his last 10 contests, which sits 0.1 above his typical line of 0.9. This small but consistent edge favors over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones steals overs in fast-paced games against turnover-prone opponents. His backup role allows aggressive defense without foul concerns, maximizing steal opportunities in uptempo situations.