Tre Jones presents a modest edge on assists props with a 53.8% over rate across 39 games, averaging 7.31 assists against a 6.99 line. The +0.3 differential and positive over ROI suggest consistent playmaking production, making this a lean over opportunity in the right spots.
Expert Analysis
Tre Jones's assists production reveals a steady floor as San Antonio's primary facilitator, with his 7.31 average consistently outpacing the typical 6.99 line. The 53.8% over rate indicates modest but reliable value, driven by his role as the Spurs' primary ball-handler in their pace-heavy system. What makes Jones particularly attractive is the consistency of his usage - unlike backup point guards who see volatile minutes, Jones maintains steady court time regardless of game script. The +2.8% over ROI demonstrates that books haven't fully adjusted to his reliable production, creating ongoing value. However, the sample size limitations and lack of split data present some uncertainty. The longest over streak of six games suggests Jones can get hot with his passing, while the four-game under streak shows he's not immune to rough patches. His assists production appears less matchup-dependent than most guards, likely due to San Antonio's system emphasizing ball movement regardless of opponent. The key concern is regression to the mean, as a 53.8% hit rate over 39 games could normalize closer to 50% with more data. Still, Jones's role security and the Spurs' uptempo style provide structural advantages that should maintain slight over bias.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Tre Jones's consistent role as San Antonio's primary facilitator creates a reliable assists floor that slightly exceeds typical lines. The +0.3 average differential and positive over ROI indicate sustainable value, particularly when the line sits at 6.5 or lower. Main risk is small sample variance and potential regression, but his usage stability makes this a solid lean over in most spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's Assists prop record all games?
Tre Jones has gone over his assists prop in 21 of 39 games (53.8%) while staying under 18 times. His record shows consistent but modest over performance, averaging 7.31 assists against typical lines around 6.99.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones Assists all games?
Lean over on Tre Jones assists props, especially when the line is 6.5 or lower. His 7.31 average and +0.3 differential provide consistent value, though keep bet sizes moderate given the modest edge.
What's Tre Jones's average Assists all games?
Tre Jones averages 7.31 assists per game, which runs 0.32 assists above the typical 6.99 line. This differential creates consistent value for over bettors, particularly when lines are set conservatively.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones assists overs when lines are 6.5 or below, maximizing the value from his 7.31 average. Avoid when lines reach 7.5+, as the margin becomes too thin for comfortable betting.