Trae Young's three-pointers made prop at home presents a stark underperformance pattern, hitting the over just 26.3% of the time across 38 games with a brutal -0.3 differential from the typical 3.0 line. This creates a compelling under opportunity with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of systematic underperformance for Trae Young's three-point production in Atlanta. Hitting just 10 overs in 38 home games represents a massive deviation from expected variance, suggesting structural factors beyond random shooting variance. Young's 2.71 home average consistently falls short of the standard 3.0 line, creating a persistent edge for under bettors who've enjoyed a remarkable 40.7% ROI. The eight-game under streak in the sample demonstrates the sustainability of this pattern, while the maximum over streak of just two games shows how rare his explosive three-point nights are at State Farm Arena. This isn't simply a cold shooting stretch—it reflects how Young's role and shot selection shift in home games. The consistency of this underperformance across a full season's worth of data suggests environmental or strategic factors that make Young less likely to exceed three made threes at home. Whether it's defensive adjustments, pace of play, or shot distribution changes, something fundamental alters Young's three-point output when playing in front of the home crowd. The 73.7% under rate provides substantial backing for continued fade opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Young's 26.3% over rate and -0.3 differential create a sustainable edge for under bettors at home. The ideal condition is any line set at 3.0 or higher, where his 2.71 average provides clear value. Main risk is regression to the mean, but the sample size and consistency suggest structural factors rather than variance driving this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trae Young's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Trae Young has gone 10-28-0 on three-pointers made overs in home games, hitting just 26.3% with an average of 2.71 made threes compared to the typical 3.0 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trae Young 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Young's three-pointers made at home. The 73.7% under rate and 40.7% ROI provide strong evidence of a sustainable edge against inflated lines.
What's Trae Young's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Young averages 2.71 three-pointers made in home games, which runs 0.3 below the standard 3.0 line, creating consistent value for under bettors across the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target home games with lines set at 3.0 or higher for maximum value. Young's consistent underperformance at State Farm Arena makes any elevated line an attractive under opportunity.