Trae Young's steals prop presents a compelling over opportunity with a 60% hit rate across his last 10 games, generating +14.6% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 0.9 steals against a 1.1 line, Young's current four-game over streak suggests positive momentum in defensive activity.
Expert Analysis
The 6-4 over record on Trae Young's steals prop reveals an intriguing market inefficiency, particularly given the sustained four-game over streak that represents his longest run in this sample. While Young's 0.9 average sits 0.2 steals below the typical 1.1 line, the 60% over rate suggests books may be overvaluing his defensive consistency. Young's gambling instincts and increased defensive engagement during Atlanta's competitive stretch likely drive this trend. The point guard's steal production often correlates with game flow and his team's need for extra possessions, making situational factors crucial. His aggressive ball-hawking style can produce variance that creates betting value when lines fail to account for his opportunistic defensive plays. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates sustained profitability despite the negative differential, suggesting Young's steal ceiling exceeds market expectations. However, regression risk exists given the small sample and his historically inconsistent defensive metrics. The absence of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but Young's recent defensive uptick appears genuine rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Young's four-game over streak and positive ROI trend outweigh the negative differential against his season average. The 60% hit rate suggests market undervaluation of his defensive upside, particularly when Atlanta needs extra possessions. Primary risk involves regression to his lower seasonal average, but current momentum favors continued over production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trae Young's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Trae Young has hit the over on his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), going 6-4-0 overall. He's currently on a four-game over streak, his longest in this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trae Young Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Young's steals props. The 60% hit rate and +14.6% ROI for overs, combined with his current four-game streak, suggests the market undervalues his defensive upside despite the negative average differential.
What's Trae Young's average Steals last 10 games?
Young averages 0.9 steals over his last 10 games against a typical line of 1.1, creating a -0.2 differential. However, his 60% over rate indicates this average understates his ceiling production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Young's steals overs during competitive games where Atlanta needs extra possessions. His gambling defensive style thrives in uptempo situations, though avoid spots where blowouts might limit his aggressive play.