Trae Young's home points props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 42.1% of overs across 38 games with a brutal -19.6% ROI on overs. The Hawks' star guard averages 25.42 points at State Farm Arena, nearly a full point below his typical 26.26 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Trae Young's home scoring patterns that contradicts conventional wisdom about home court advantage. Young's 25.42 point average at State Farm Arena represents a meaningful 0.84 point deficit against his standard line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his home struggles. This isn't a small sample anomaly—across 38 home contests, Young has failed to reach his points total 58% of the time, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. The -19.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this trend, yet the lines remain inflated. Young's home scoring depression likely stems from the Hawks' improved pace control and defensive focus in familiar surroundings, plus potential rest advantages that lead to more selective shot selection. The consistency is remarkable: even during his longest over streak of four games, the under quickly reasserted itself with a seven-game run. With no significant split variations to muddy the waters, this represents one of the cleaner prop trends in the NBA. The key risk lies in Young's explosive ceiling—he can erupt for 35+ on any night—but the frequency simply isn't there at home to justify over betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Trae Young's home points props offer legitimate value on the under, supported by a 58% hit rate and positive ROI over a substantial 38-game sample. The nearly full-point scoring depression at State Farm Arena creates a measurable edge that oddsmakers haven't corrected. Target unders when the line sits at 26+ points, especially in games with projected slower pace or back-to-back situations that could limit Young's minutes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 23.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 25.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 27.5 | 35.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-06 | OPP | 25.5 | 22.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 24.5 | 19.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-23 | OPP | 27.5 | 38.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 26.5 | 32.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-28 | OPP | 23.5 | 21.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-22 | OPP | 27.5 | 13.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 15.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 21.5 | 21.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 23.5 | 11.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 23.5 | 19.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 26.5 | 25.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trae Young's Points prop record home games?
Trae Young has hit 16 overs and 22 unders in 38 home games, producing a 42.1% over rate. This translates to a -19.6% ROI for over bettors while under backers enjoy +10.5% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trae Young Points home games?
Bet the under on Trae Young's home points props. His 25.42 point average falls nearly a full point below typical lines, creating consistent value with a 58% under hit rate and positive ROI.
What's Trae Young's average Points home games?
Trae Young averages 25.42 points in home games compared to his standard 26.26 line, representing a -0.84 point differential. This consistent scoring depression creates measurable under value at State Farm Arena.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trae Young points unders when lines are set at 26+ points in home games, particularly in slower-paced matchups or potential rest situations that could limit his scoring opportunities and minutes.