Toumani Camara's points prop on one day rest presents a clear under edge, hitting just 47.4% overs across 19 games with a modest -0.3 average differential. The under side shows slight positive ROI at +0.5% while overs hemorrhage -9.6%, making this a lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals Camara consistently underperforms his points total when operating on one day rest, averaging 9.79 points against a 10.13 line. This 0.34-point shortfall might seem marginal, but it's created meaningful value on the under side across a substantial 19-game sample. The 47.4% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Camara's reduced scoring efficiency in back-to-back situations. As a role player averaging limited minutes, Camara's offensive output becomes more volatile with fatigue, particularly affecting his three-point shooting which comprises a significant portion of his scoring. The Trail Blazers' pace and rotation patterns on short rest likely limit his opportunities, as coach Chauncey Billups tends to shorten rotations in compressed schedules. The persistence of this trend through nearly 20 games indicates it's more than random variance. However, the modest differential means this edge could evaporate quickly if Camara's role expands or if books adjust lines downward. The current streak of one under suggests recent market efficiency, but the broader pattern favors continued underperformance on short rest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of consistent underperformance (-0.3 differential) and positive under ROI (+0.5%) creates a legitimate edge despite the modest margin. Camara's role player status makes him particularly susceptible to reduced efficiency on short rest. The main risk is the small sample size and narrow differential, which could reverse with a few hot shooting nights or expanded minutes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 7.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 11.5 | 19.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 10.5 | 24.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 9.5 | 16.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 9.5 | 17.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Toumani Camara's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Toumani Camara's points prop record on one day rest is 9-10 over/under across 19 games, hitting the over just 47.4% of the time. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance against the betting market's expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Toumani Camara Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Toumani Camara's points when he's on one day rest. The data shows consistent underperformance with positive ROI on under bets (+0.5%) while overs lose money (-9.6%). This creates a legitimate betting edge.
What's Toumani Camara's average Points 1 day rest?
Toumani Camara averages 9.79 points on one day rest compared to his typical line of 10.13. This -0.34 differential consistently favors under bets, though the margin is modest and requires careful line shopping for maximum value.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Camara's points props is when he's on one day rest, specifically targeting under bets. Look for lines at 10+ points where the historical underperformance creates the strongest edge against inflated totals.