Tobias Harris has been a blocks goldmine this season, hitting the over in 11 of 18 games (61.1%) while averaging 1.06 blocks against a 0.56 line. The +0.5 differential and +16.7% ROI on overs makes this a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Harris's blocks production represents one of the most undervalued props in the market, with books consistently setting lines that fail to account for his increased defensive activity in Detroit's system. The 1.06 average against a 0.56 line creates massive value, particularly when considering Harris has recorded at least one block in 13 of 18 games this season. His role as a versatile forward allows him to rack up blocks through help defense and switching assignments, skills that translate consistently across matchups. The 61.1% over rate isn't just hot variance—it reflects a fundamental shift in Harris's defensive positioning under Detroit's coaching staff. While his career blocks average sits lower, context matters more than history here. The Pistons' pace and defensive scheme puts Harris in prime shot-blocking situations, and his 6'8" frame with solid timing has produced results. The three-game over streak suggests momentum, but more importantly, the underlying 0.5 block edge per game indicates sustainable value. Risk factors include potential blowouts where Harris sees reduced minutes, but Detroit's competitive games have kept him active defensively throughout most contests.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.5 block differential between Harris's average and the typical line creates consistent value that the market hasn't corrected. Best spots come in competitive games where Harris plays 30+ minutes and faces teams with interior scoring threats. Main risk is reduced playing time in blowouts, but Detroit's close games have kept Harris active defensively.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tobias Harris's Blocks prop record all games?
Harris has hit the blocks over in 11 of 18 games this season, posting a 61.1% over rate with a +16.7% ROI. His 7-11 under record shows clear value on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tobias Harris Blocks all games?
Bet the over on Harris's blocks props. His 1.06 average significantly exceeds typical 0.56 lines, creating consistent value that the market hasn't properly adjusted for this season.
What's Tobias Harris's average Blocks all games?
Harris averages 1.06 blocks per game this season, running 0.5 blocks above the standard 0.56 line. This substantial differential has produced profitable over betting opportunities throughout the campaign.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris blocks overs in competitive games where he projects for 30+ minutes. Avoid potential blowouts where reduced playing time could limit his defensive opportunities and block accumulation.