Terry Rozier has been an assists under machine in his last 10 games, going 4-6 O/U with just a 40.0% over rate. Averaging 3.3 assists against a 3.7 line creates consistent value on the under with +14.6% ROI. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Terry Rozier's assist production has fallen short of expectations consistently, creating a clear betting edge on the under. The 0.4 assist differential below the line isn't marginal variance—it represents a systematic shift in his role within Miami's offense. Rozier has historically been more of a scoring guard than a pure facilitator, and this 10-game sample reinforces that identity. The 60% under rate with positive ROI suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his current usage patterns. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—even when Rozier hits the over, it's typically by narrow margins, while his unders tend to be decisive. The longest under streak of three games shows he can go cold on assists for extended periods. Miami's pace and offensive system may not maximize Rozier's assist opportunities, especially if he's being used more as a catch-and-shoot option rather than a primary ball-handler. The sample size of 10 games provides enough data to identify a legitimate pattern without being so large that regression becomes inevitable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate and positive ROI create a legitimate edge, but the sample size prevents high conviction. Rozier's role as more scorer than facilitator aligns with the data trend. Best spots are when he's playing off-ball or in faster-paced games where assists get distributed among multiple players. Main risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his assist totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Terry Rozier has gone 4-6 O/U on his assists prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This translates to a -23.6% ROI on overs but a profitable +14.6% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Terry Rozier's assists. The 60% under rate and positive ROI create a clear edge, as he's averaging 3.3 assists against a 3.7 line. The trend shows consistent underperformance.
What's Terry Rozier's average Assists last 10 games?
Terry Rozier is averaging 3.3 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.4 assists below the typical 3.7 line. This negative differential has created consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rozier assists unders when he's playing more off-ball or in uptempo games where assists get spread around. Avoid when Miami is short-handed and he's forced into primary playmaking duties.