Terry Rozier's assists prop at home presents a clear under opportunity with a 42.9% over rate across 14 games. His 5.29 average barely clears the 5.0 line, while the under delivers +9.1% ROI compared to -18.2% losses on overs. This is a lean under situation with developing momentum.
Expert Analysis
Rozier's home assist numbers reveal a player whose playmaking doesn't significantly elevate in familiar surroundings. The 5.29 average against a 5.0 line creates minimal margin for error, and the 42.9% over rate suggests books have found the sweet spot. What's particularly telling is the ROI disparity—backing unders has generated positive returns while overs have been costly. The current two-game under streak aligns with broader pattern recognition, as Rozier has struggled to sustain assist production consistently at home. Miami's offensive system often flows through multiple initiators, limiting Rozier's pure playmaking opportunities when the Heat control pace and rhythm on their home court. The lack of extended over streaks (longest is just one game) indicates Rozier rarely gets into those elevated assist grooves that can break props. His role as more of a scorer than distributor becomes pronounced at home, where the Heat's structured offense doesn't require him to create as much for others. The negative ROI on overs spanning this sample size suggests the market has been slow to adjust to this reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of 42.9% over rate and positive under ROI creates a sustainable edge, particularly with Rozier currently on a two-game under streak. Target this when Miami faces teams that won't force high-pace situations, allowing their structured home offense to limit Rozier's assist ceiling. Main risk is an injury to Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro that could force increased playmaking duties.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's Assists prop record home games?
Terry Rozier has gone 6-8 on assists overs in home games, hitting just 42.9% of the time. His average of 5.29 assists barely clears the typical 5.0 line, with unders providing +9.1% ROI versus -18.2% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier Assists home games?
Bet under on Terry Rozier's assists at home. The 42.9% over rate and positive under ROI create a clear edge, especially with his current two-game under streak and Miami's structured home offense limiting his playmaking opportunities.
What's Terry Rozier's average Assists home games?
Terry Rozier averages 5.29 assists in home games, just 0.3 above the standard 5.0 line. This minimal margin leaves little room for error and explains why overs hit only 42.9% of the time in this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Terry Rozier assist unders when Miami faces slower-paced opponents at home, allowing their structured offense to minimize his playmaking role. Avoid when key Heat playmakers are injured, forcing increased creation duties on Rozier.