Stephen Curry's three-pointers made prop shows a slight under bias with 32 overs in 66 games (48.5%), averaging 4.76 against a 4.73 line. The minimal edge and poor ROI on both sides suggest this is an efficiently priced market that's difficult to beat consistently.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating paradox in Curry's three-point betting market. Despite averaging 4.76 makes against a 4.73 line—a seemingly favorable 0.03 differential—the over has hit just 48.5% of the time with a brutal -7.4% ROI. This disconnect suggests the market is accounting for Curry's volatility more effectively than raw averages indicate. The Warriors' pace and game script variations likely drive this efficiency, as Curry's three-point volume fluctuates dramatically based on game flow, opponent defensive schemes, and rest considerations. His current three-game over streak represents natural variance rather than a sustainable trend, especially given the historical balance of four-game streaks in both directions. The minimal differential between his average and the typical line indicates sportsbooks have found the sweet spot for this prop. Without situational splits to identify profitable spots, bettors are essentially coin-flipping in a market where the house edge is clearly established. The under's superior -1.6% ROI suggests slight market inefficiency favoring that side, but the margin is too thin for consistent profit without additional context.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with LOW confidence. The under's superior -1.6% ROI compared to the over's -7.4% suggests slight market bias, but the edge is minimal. Curry's 4.76 average against a 4.73 line appears favorable for overs, yet hits only 48.5% of the time, indicating the market efficiently prices his volatility. Without situational data to identify profitable spots, this prop offers limited value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Stephen Curry's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Curry has gone over his three-pointers made prop 32 times in 66 games (48.5%), with 34 unders. He averages 4.76 makes against a typical 4.73 line, showing minimal differential despite the slight under bias.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Stephen Curry 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under with low confidence. The under shows better ROI at -1.6% versus the over's -7.4%. However, the edge is minimal and this appears to be an efficiently priced market that's difficult to beat consistently.
What's Stephen Curry's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Curry averages 4.76 three-pointers made across all games, compared to his typical line of 4.73. This 0.03 differential favors the over but hasn't translated to profitable betting, with overs hitting just 48.5% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Without situational splits available, there's no clear optimal timing for Curry's three-point props. The market appears efficiently priced across all conditions, making this a low-edge proposition regardless of when you bet it.