Stephen Curry's points props have been systematically overvalued, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors. The Warriors star is averaging 24.1 points against a 25.6 line, creating a consistent 1.5-point edge for under bettors who've enjoyed +14.6% returns.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story of market inefficiency around Curry's scoring output during this recent stretch. Averaging 24.1 points against inflated lines of 25.6 represents more than just variance - it suggests oddsmakers are still pricing Curry based on his peak scoring reputation rather than current reality. The 4-6 over/under record with a -1.5 differential per game indicates systematic overvaluation, not random fluctuation. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the edge. While Curry remains capable of explosive performances, the Warriors' evolved offensive system and his increased focus on facilitating have naturally depressed his scoring volume. The longest under streak reached three games, suggesting when Curry goes cold from a scoring perspective, he tends to stay there for extended periods. However, bettors should remain cautious of potential regression, especially in high-leverage situations where Golden State may lean more heavily on their superstar's scoring ability. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful data without being so extensive that the market has fully corrected. The key risk lies in Curry's inherent volatility - he remains one of the few players capable of single-handedly breaking any trend with a vintage eruption.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.5-point average differential and +14.6% ROI for under bettors represents genuine value, but Curry's explosive upside prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target this trend when Golden State faces elite defenses or in back-to-back scenarios where Curry's minutes might be managed. The primary risk remains his ability to detonate for 35+ points without warning, making position sizing crucial.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 26.5 | 33.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 25.5 | 22.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 26.5 | 23.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 26.5 | 13.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 25.5 | 33.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 24.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 25.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 25.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 24.5 | 31.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Stephen Curry's Points prop record last 10 games?
Stephen Curry has gone 4-6 on points overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his over bets. This represents a significant underperformance that has cost over bettors -23.6% ROI while rewarding under bettors with +14.6% returns during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Stephen Curry Points last 10 games?
Bet under on Stephen Curry's points props. He's averaging 24.1 points against 25.6 lines, creating a consistent 1.5-point edge. The under has hit 60% of the time with strong ROI, though remain cautious of his explosive upside in crucial games.
What's Stephen Curry's average Points last 10 games?
Stephen Curry is averaging 24.1 points over his last 10 games compared to typical lines of 25.6, creating a -1.5 differential per game. This gap represents the core value driving the under trend and the poor ROI for over bettors during this period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Curry points unders when Golden State faces elite defenses or plays back-to-back games where minutes might be managed. Avoid betting this trend in playoff-atmosphere games or when the Warriors desperately need wins, as those situations favor his explosive scoring potential.