Stephen Curry's assists prop at home shows solid over value with an 18-13 record (58.1% hit rate) despite averaging slightly under the typical 5.05 line at 4.84. The +10.8% ROI on overs suggests consistent market inefficiency. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
The 58.1% over rate on Curry's home assists props reveals a meaningful edge, particularly when considering the +10.8% ROI despite his 4.84 average sitting 0.2 assists below the standard line. This apparent contradiction suggests the market consistently undervalues Curry's playmaking in familiar surroundings at Chase Center. Home court advantage manifests differently for elite point guards like Curry—while shooting percentages often improve at home, the assists uptick comes from enhanced court vision, better chemistry with teammates in familiar rotations, and increased pace in front of supportive crowds. The 31-game sample provides statistical significance, and the fact that overs hit nearly 60% of the time while maintaining positive ROI indicates this isn't simply variance. The Warriors' offensive system at home tends to generate more ball movement and secondary assists opportunities, which directly benefits Curry's assist totals. However, the recent single-game under streak and the negative average differential warrant caution. The longest over streak of seven games suggests this trend can run hot, but the four-game under streak maximum indicates corrections don't typically extend beyond short-term variance. Key risk factors include blowout games where Curry sits the fourth quarter and matchups against elite defensive teams that limit assist opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.1% hit rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge on Curry's home assists props. Target games against average-to-poor defenses where competitive flow is expected. The -0.2 average differential is misleading given the strong over percentage, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to Curry's enhanced playmaking at Chase Center. Main risk is fourth-quarter rest in blowouts, making competitive matchups ideal.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Stephen Curry's Assists prop record home games?
Stephen Curry has gone over his assists prop in 18 of 31 home games (58.1% rate) with an average of 4.84 assists per game. His home over record significantly outperforms the typical 52.4% needed for profitability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Stephen Curry Assists home games?
Bet over on Curry's home assists props, particularly in competitive matchups. The 58.1% hit rate and +10.8% ROI provide a clear statistical edge, while the -19.9% under ROI confirms market inefficiency favoring overs.
What's Stephen Curry's average Assists home games?
Curry averages 4.84 assists in home games, which sits 0.2 assists below the typical 5.05 line. However, the 58.1% over rate suggests this negative differential is misleading and the market undervalues his home playmaking.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Curry assists overs in competitive home games against average-to-poor defenses. Avoid blowout spots where he might sit the fourth quarter. The trend shows strongest value when game flow supports full playing time.