Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point props on one day of rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.9% of overs across 49 games with a -14.3% ROI on the over. The Thunder star averages 1.49 makes against a 1.4 line, but the consistency heavily favors the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point shooting patterns when operating on one day of rest. Despite averaging 1.49 makes against a typical 1.4 line—a seemingly favorable 0.1 differential—the over has cashed just 22 times in 49 opportunities, creating a massive 14.3% negative ROI for over bettors. This disconnect between average and hit rate reveals the volatility inherent in three-point props, where Gilgeous-Alexander's shot selection and rhythm appear affected by the compressed recovery window. The Thunder's pace and offensive flow likely shift with limited preparation time, potentially reducing the quality of his three-point looks or his willingness to fire from deep. The current two-game under streak aligns with historical patterns, as his longest under streak reached six games while overs peaked at five. Most importantly, the 5.2% positive ROI on unders demonstrates real edge over a substantial sample size. The consistency of this trend across nearly 50 games suggests systemic factors rather than random variance, making this a reliable betting angle when Gilgeous-Alexander faces single-day rest scenarios.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55.1% under hit rate combined with positive ROI creates legitimate value, especially given the substantial 49-game sample. Target this prop when Gilgeous-Alexander plays on one day of rest, particularly if the line sits at 1.5 or higher. The primary risk lies in his elite shooting ability potentially overcoming rest-related rhythm issues, but the historical data strongly supports the under approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point props on one day of rest show a 22-27 over/under record (44.9% overs) across 49 games. The under has hit 55.1% of the time, generating a positive 5.2% ROI while overs lose 14.3%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point props when he has one day of rest. The 55.1% under hit rate and positive ROI over 49 games creates clear value, especially at lines of 1.5 or higher.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 1.49 three-pointers made on one day of rest, which is 0.1 above the typical 1.4 line. However, this slight edge is misleading given the 55.1% under hit rate in actual games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander three-point unders specifically on one day of rest scenarios, where he hits under 55.1% of the time. Avoid betting overs in this situation due to the consistent negative ROI pattern over 49 games.