Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a reliable three-point over bet, hitting 6-4-0 (60.0%) with a robust +14.6% ROI across his last 10 games. His 2.9 average significantly exceeds the typical 2.1 line, creating a consistent +0.8 edge that suggests continued over value.
Expert Analysis
Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point surge reflects his evolution into a more complete offensive weapon for Oklahoma City. The 2.9 average represents a meaningful uptick from his career norms, driven by increased confidence and better shot selection rather than volume chasing. His 60% over rate isn't just random variance—it's supported by fundamental changes in his approach, including more catch-and-shoot opportunities as the Thunder's offense has diversified around him. The +0.8 differential between his actual production and typical lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his improved perimeter game. What's particularly encouraging is the sustainability factor: Gilgeous-Alexander isn't relying on outlier shooting nights but rather consistent 2-4 make performances that steadily clear modest lines. The recent single-game under streak doesn't concern given his overall trajectory. However, regression risk exists if his shot selection reverts or if opponents begin forcing him into more contested looks. The Thunder's pace and his usage rate in different game scripts will be critical factors moving forward, as blowouts could limit his three-point attempts in either direction.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gilgeous-Alexander's improved three-point consistency and the +0.8 line differential create legitimate value on overs. The 60% hit rate with positive ROI suggests this isn't just hot shooting but a skill development trend. Target games where Oklahoma City faces quality opponents that will keep him engaged throughout, avoiding potential blowout spots where his minutes could be limited in fourth quarters.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% over rate) with a 6-4-0 record. His overs have generated a +14.6% ROI, while unders have lost -23.6%, showing clear profitability on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet over on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-pointers made props. His 2.9 average significantly exceeds typical 2.1 lines, creating consistent value. The 60% over rate with positive ROI indicates this is a sustainable edge, not just hot shooting variance.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 2.9 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which is +0.8 above his typical 2.1 line. This substantial differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his improved perimeter shooting consistency and confidence.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander three-point overs in competitive games against quality opponents where he'll stay engaged for full minutes. Avoid potential blowout spots where Oklahoma City might rest him in fourth quarters, limiting his three-point attempt opportunities.