Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-pointers made prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 43.9% of overs across 41 games. Despite averaging 1.46 makes versus a 1.23 line, the under delivers +7.1% ROI while overs lose -16.2%. The data strongly favors betting under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point shooting at home that contradicts surface-level expectations. While his 1.46 average appears to exceed the typical 1.23 line by a meaningful 0.23 makes, this differential hasn't translated to consistent over results. The 18-23 over-under record represents a significant sample size that reveals the betting market's persistent overvaluation of his home three-point volume. Gilgeous-Alexander's role as Oklahoma City's primary offensive engine often leads to selective shot selection, particularly from beyond the arc where efficiency matters more than volume. At home, the Thunder's pace and game script frequently favor his driving and mid-range game over three-point attempts. The -16.2% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this inefficiency, while the +7.1% under return suggests sustainable value. The fact that both his longest over and under streaks reached seven games demonstrates the volatility inherent in three-point props, but the overall trend clearly tilts toward fewer makes than the market anticipates. This pattern reflects a fundamental disconnect between Gilgeous-Alexander's actual shot distribution at home versus public perception of his three-point frequency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56.1% under hit rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge against an overvalued market. Target games where Oklahoma City faces elite perimeter defenses or expects blowout scenarios that limit Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point attempts. The main risk lies in Thunder trailing early, forcing increased three-point volume, but the historical data suggests this scenario occurs less frequently at home than the market prices.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three pointers made prop in home games shows an 18-23 over-under record (43.9% overs) across 41 games from October 2023 to March 2025, with unders hitting 56.1% of the time.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three pointers made in home games. The data shows 56.1% under hits with +7.1% ROI, while overs lose -16.2%. This represents clear value against an overvalued market.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 1.46 three pointers made in home games, which exceeds the typical 1.23 line by 0.23 makes. However, this differential hasn't translated to consistent over results, hitting just 43.9%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander three pointers made unders when Oklahoma City faces elite perimeter defenses at home or in potential blowout scenarios. Avoid when the Thunder trail early, as this forces increased three-point volume.