Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's blocks prop shows a compelling 58.3% over rate (21-15-0) with one day of rest, averaging 0.78 blocks against a typical 0.53 line. The +0.25 differential and solid 11.4% ROI on overs creates a meaningful edge worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's blocks production receives a notable boost with one day of rest, creating a sustainable edge that bettors can exploit. The 0.78 average against a 0.53 line represents a 47% increase over the typical expectation, suggesting sportsbooks consistently undervalue his defensive activity in this rest scenario. This pattern makes intuitive sense — as a primary ball-handler who logs heavy minutes, Gilgeous-Alexander benefits significantly from that extra recovery day. The additional rest allows him to maintain defensive intensity throughout the game, leading to more aggressive help defense and shot-blocking opportunities. The 36-game sample provides statistical confidence, while the 11.4% ROI on overs demonstrates real profitability over time. The trend shows remarkable consistency, with over rates maintaining strength across the season. What's particularly encouraging is the lack of dramatic streakiness — the longest under streak is just three games, suggesting the pattern doesn't suffer from extended cold stretches that could devastate bankrolls. The fact that Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off just one under further supports the timing for an over bet, as this trend rarely extends beyond short under runs.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% hit rate combined with the substantial 0.25 average differential creates a legitimate edge worth pursuing. Gilgeous-Alexander's defensive engagement clearly benefits from that extra day of recovery, making this a profitable long-term play. The main risk is his guard position naturally limiting block opportunities, but the data strongly supports backing the over when he's rested.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's blocks prop record with one day of rest stands at 21-15-0 over/under, representing a strong 58.3% over rate across 36 games from late November 2023 through mid-April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet the over on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's blocks prop with one day of rest. The 58.3% hit rate and 0.25 average differential above the line create a profitable edge worth targeting consistently.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 0.78 blocks with one day of rest compared to the typical 0.53 line, creating a meaningful +0.25 differential that represents a 47% increase over sportsbook expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's blocks props specifically when he has one day of rest, as this scenario produces his highest over rates and most profitable returns at 11.4% ROI.