Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists props on one day of rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.0% overs across 50 games with a -12.2% ROI for over bettors. His 6.0 average sits right at the typical 6.04 line, but the consistent under performance makes this a profitable fade spot.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's playmaking patterns when operating on standard rest. His 46.0% over rate across 50 games represents a meaningful sample size that suggests books may be overvaluing his assist production in these spots. The -12.2% ROI for over bettors indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent edge. What makes this particularly interesting is how his 6.0 average aligns almost perfectly with the 6.04 line, yet unders still cash at a 54% clip. This suggests Gilgeous-Alexander's assist distribution on one day rest is more volatile than his average indicates, with enough low-assist games to create value on the under. The Thunder's offensive system likely plays a role here, as Gilgeous-Alexander often shifts into pure scoring mode when the team needs buckets, reducing his facilitating responsibilities. His three-game over streak represents typical variance within this broader under trend, and regression toward his established pattern becomes more likely with each consecutive over. The lack of extreme streaks in either direction (longest runs of four) actually supports the reliability of this trend, showing consistent but not overwhelming under performance that books haven't fully adjusted for.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the modest 4% differential keeps this from being a slam dunk. Target this when Gilgeous-Alexander's assist line sits at 6.0 or higher, particularly after over streaks of 2-3 games when regression becomes more likely. The main risk is his elite playmaking ability can override trends in specific game scripts, but the sample size supports consistent under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander goes under his assists prop 54% of the time on one day rest, posting a 23-27 over/under record across 50 games. This represents a clear pattern favoring under bettors with measurable value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Assists 1 day rest?
Bet under on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists props when he has one day rest. The 54% under rate and positive 3.1% ROI create a sustainable edge, especially when his line is 6.0 or higher.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average Assists 1 day rest?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 6.0 assists on one day rest, essentially matching the typical 6.04 line. Despite this alignment, unders still hit 54% of the time due to his volatile assist distribution in these spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists unders specifically on one day rest when his line is 6.0+, particularly after 2-3 consecutive overs when regression becomes more likely within this established trend pattern.