Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists prop at home presents compelling value, hitting the over in 26 of 42 games (61.9%) with a +0.6 average differential above the typical line. The Thunder guard's home court advantage in facilitating offense has generated an impressive +18.2% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's home assists dominance stems from Oklahoma City's offensive rhythm at Paycom Center, where the Thunder's pace and ball movement create optimal conditions for his playmaking. The 61.9% over rate isn't just statistical noise—it reflects genuine home court advantages that persist across different opponents and game scripts. Gilgeous-Alexander benefits from familiar surroundings, supportive crowd energy that elevates teammate shooting percentages, and the Thunder's tendency to play more freely in front of their home fans. The +0.6 differential above typical lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to this home/road split, creating consistent value. His current five-game over streak aligns with season-long patterns rather than representing an unsustainable hot streak. The -27.3% ROI on unders reinforces how challenging it's been to fade his home playmaking. While regression is always possible, the underlying factors—Oklahoma City's home offensive efficiency, Gilgeous-Alexander's comfort level, and his expanding role as the team's primary initiator—remain intact. The absence of significant injury concerns or role changes suggests this trend has staying power through the remainder of the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gilgeous-Alexander's 61.9% home over rate and +18.2% ROI represent genuine value, not statistical fluke. The Thunder's home offensive environment consistently elevates his playmaking opportunities beyond what road numbers suggest. Primary risk involves potential blowout scenarios where fourth-quarter minutes disappear, but Oklahoma City's competitive Western Conference positioning makes most games meaningful.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Assists prop record home games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has hit the assists over in 26 of 42 home games this season (61.9% success rate). His home assists average of 6.62 consistently outperforms the typical betting line by 0.6 assists per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Assists home games?
Bet the over on Gilgeous-Alexander's assists at home. His 61.9% over rate and +18.2% ROI demonstrate consistent value, driven by Oklahoma City's improved offensive flow and his enhanced playmaking comfort at Paycom Center.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average Assists home games?
Gilgeous-Alexander averages 6.62 assists in home games, which runs 0.6 assists above typical betting lines. This differential has created profitable over opportunities throughout the season with remarkable consistency across different opponents.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gilgeous-Alexander assists overs in competitive home games where Oklahoma City expects to play their starters significant minutes. Avoid potential blowouts against weaker opponents where garbage time could limit his fourth-quarter opportunities.