Shaedon Sharpe's rebounds prop shows a clear home advantage with a 60% over rate (6-4-0) and averaging 5.3 rebounds versus a 4.4 line. The +0.9 differential and +14.6% ROI on overs, combined with a current 3-game over streak, suggests consistent value on the over at home.
Expert Analysis
Sharpe's home rebounding edge stems from Portland's pace and his expanded role in familiar surroundings. The 5.3 average against a 4.4 line represents significant value, particularly given the consistency shown across 10 games. Guards typically see inflated rebounding numbers at home due to favorable bounces and increased comfort attacking the glass. The current 3-game over streak aligns with the broader 60% hit rate, suggesting this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern. Portland's home court likely benefits Sharpe's positioning and aggression on the boards, while the Moda Center's dimensions may favor his athletic profile. The +14.6% ROI demonstrates this trend has been profitable for bettors, not just frequent. However, the limited sample size of 10 games requires caution, and any significant lineup changes or pace shifts could disrupt this pattern. Sharpe's rebounding role appears more defined at home, where he's comfortable taking chances and crashing the boards without worrying about transition defense as much. The consistency of beating a 4.4 line by nearly a full rebound suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home court advantage.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and +0.9 average differential provide clear value, especially with the current 3-game streak supporting the broader trend. Target this when the line stays at 4.5 or lower, as Sharpe consistently exceeds expectations at home. Main risk is the limited 10-game sample size and potential for sportsbooks to adjust the line upward as this pattern becomes more recognized.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shaedon Sharpe's Rebounds prop record home games?
Shaedon Sharpe's rebounds prop at home shows a 6-4-0 record (60% overs) with a +14.6% ROI on over bets. He's averaging 5.3 rebounds per home game against a typical 4.4 line, creating consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shaedon Sharpe Rebounds home games?
Bet the over on Shaedon Sharpe's rebounds at home. The 60% hit rate, +0.9 average differential, and current 3-game over streak provide clear value, especially when the line stays at 4.5 or below.
What's Shaedon Sharpe's average Rebounds home games?
Shaedon Sharpe averages 5.3 rebounds in home games, nearly a full rebound above the typical 4.4 line. This +0.9 differential has been consistent across 10 games, suggesting sustainable value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shaedon Sharpe's rebounds over when Portland plays at home and the line is 4.5 or lower. The home court advantage appears genuine, with his comfort level and positioning creating consistent value opportunities.