Shaedon Sharpe's points unders at home present a compelling value proposition, hitting at a 60% clip (6-4 record) while averaging 16.3 points against a 17.4 line. The -1.1 differential combined with +14.6% under ROI suggests consistent line inflation at Moda Center.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Shaedon Sharpe's home scoring patterns that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. His 16.3 average against a 17.4 line represents a meaningful 6.3% gap that's persisted across 10 games, suggesting this isn't random variance but a structural inefficiency. The Trail Blazers' home environment appears to create conditions that suppress Sharpe's scoring output relative to expectations. Portland's pace and shot distribution at home may favor other offensive options, or the young guard might be pressing less in front of the home crowd. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overvalues his home scoring potential, while under bettors have been rewarded with solid 14.6% returns. This trend shows staying power given the sample size and consistency of the differential. The recent streak data supports the pattern, with longer under streaks (up to 3 games) than over streaks (maximum 1), indicating momentum tends to favor the under. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of any clear catalyst for improvement - no injury returns, role changes, or matchup advantages that would suggest imminent regression to the mean.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.1-point differential combined with 60% under success rate creates legitimate value, especially given the +14.6% ROI track record. Target this spot when Sharpe's home line sits at 17+ points, as the market continues overestimating his Moda Center production. Primary risk is a breakout performance that could shift the narrative, but the consistent pattern suggests structural factors favor the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 17.5 | 23.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 18.5 | 16.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 15.5 | 27.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 16.5 | 11.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 19.5 | 7.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 21.5 | 22.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shaedon Sharpe's Points prop record home games?
Shaedon Sharpe's points props at home show a 4-6 over/under record (40% overs hit rate) across 10 games. He's averaging 16.3 points against a typical line of 17.4, creating a consistent 1.1-point under differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shaedon Sharpe Points home games?
Bet under on Shaedon Sharpe's points at home games. The 60% under hit rate, +14.6% ROI, and persistent 1.1-point scoring deficit below the line create legitimate value that the market hasn't corrected.
What's Shaedon Sharpe's average Points home games?
Shaedon Sharpe averages 16.3 points in home games, which runs 1.1 points below his typical 17.4 line. This 6.3% gap has persisted across 10 games, indicating consistent line inflation by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shaedon Sharpe under bets when his home points line sits at 17+ points. The best spots occur when the market hasn't adjusted for Portland's home pace and shot distribution patterns that consistently suppress his scoring output.