Shaedon Sharpe's points total presents a classic value trap, hitting the over just 45.5% of the time (10-12 record) while generating negative ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 18.5 points against an 18.05 line, the Portland guard's inconsistency makes the under the sharper play.
Expert Analysis
Shaedon Sharpe's scoring profile reveals why oddsmakers have found success setting his points line at 18.05. While his 18.5 average suggests modest value on overs, the 45.5% hit rate tells the real story—Sharpe's volatile game creates more dramatic misses than narrow overs. The -13.2% ROI on overs indicates bettors are consistently overvaluing his ceiling games while underestimating his floor performances. Portland's inconsistent offensive system and Sharpe's developing role contribute to this unpredictability. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates how quickly he can fall into extended cold spells, often coinciding with increased defensive attention or role fluctuations. The modest +0.5 scoring differential above his line isn't enough to overcome the frequency of his down games. Without clear situational splits to identify his strongest conditions, Sharpe's points props become a guessing game where the house edge favors unders. His recent two-game over streak might tempt contrarian thinking, but the underlying volatility that's plagued over bettors all season remains unchanged. Young guards like Sharpe often show this pattern—tantalizing upside that doesn't translate to consistent prop betting value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Shaedon Sharpe's 54.5% under rate and positive ROI for under bettors reflects real market inefficiency. The Portland guard's scoring volatility creates more dramatic misses than narrow overs, making unders the mathematically superior play. Primary risk is his explosive scoring ceiling, but the data suggests those performances are outliers rather than trends.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 17.5 | 23.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 18.5 | 16.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 20.5 | 19.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 15.5 | 25.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 15.5 | 27.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 16.5 | 11.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 15.5 | 25.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 14.5 | 29.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 17.5 | 10.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 19.5 | 7.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shaedon Sharpe's Points prop record all games?
Shaedon Sharpe has gone 10-12 on his points over/under across 22 games, hitting the over just 45.5% of the time. This translates to a -13.2% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have enjoyed a +4.1% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shaedon Sharpe Points all games?
Bet the under on Shaedon Sharpe's points props. His 54.5% under rate and positive ROI for under bettors indicates real market value, while over bettors have consistently lost money despite his decent 18.5 scoring average.
What's Shaedon Sharpe's average Points all games?
Shaedon Sharpe averages 18.5 points per game against a typical line of 18.05, creating a modest +0.5 differential. However, this small edge is negated by his inconsistent scoring patterns that favor under outcomes 54.5% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sharpe's points unders during his cold streaks, as he's shown the ability to go six straight games under his total. Without clear situational advantages, focus on the mathematical edge that unders provide rather than trying to time his explosive games.