Shaedon Sharpe's assists props on one day rest present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 25.0% of overs across 12 games with a brutal -1.2 differential from the typical 3.42 line. Currently riding a five-game under streak, this trend offers strong value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Shaedon Sharpe's playmaking responsibilities diminish significantly when operating on standard rest, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. The 2.17 average against a 3.42 line represents a massive 36.5% gap that suggests either market inefficiency or a fundamental shift in Sharpe's role with adequate recovery time. The 25.0% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern rooted in Portland's rotation decisions and Sharpe's natural scoring-first mentality when fresh. The five-game under streak reinforces that this trend has staying power, likely driven by increased minutes for primary facilitators like Anfernee Simons when the team has proper rest. Sharpe's assist production appears inversely correlated with his scoring opportunities - when he's physically fresh on one day rest, he reverts to his natural shooting guard instincts rather than creating for others. The -52.3% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a market that hasn't adjusted to Sharpe's true playmaking ceiling in these situations. Without split data to muddy the waters, this represents one of the cleaner situational edges available, where role clarity trumps individual talent when projecting peripheral stats.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Sharpe's 2.17 average creates a 1.25-assist cushion against most lines, while the 75% under rate over 12 games demonstrates remarkable consistency. The current five-game under streak suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced playmaking role on standard rest. Target this when lines sit at 3.0 or higher, with minimal risk of regression given the role-based nature of this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shaedon Sharpe's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Shaedon Sharpe goes 3-9-0 over/under on assists props with one day rest, hitting just 25.0% of overs. He averages 2.17 assists against a typical 3.42 line, creating a substantial 1.25-assist differential favoring unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shaedon Sharpe Assists 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Sharpe's assists with one day rest. The 75% under rate and 2.17 average create excellent value, especially when lines sit at 3.0 or higher. This is a high-confidence situational edge.
What's Shaedon Sharpe's average Assists 1 day rest?
Sharpe averages 2.17 assists on one day rest compared to the typical 3.42 line, creating a massive 1.25-assist gap. This 36.5% differential represents one of the larger edges available in player props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sharpe's assists unders specifically on one day rest when lines are 3.0 or higher. Avoid back-to-back situations or extended rest scenarios where his role and usage patterns may differ significantly.