Scoot Henderson's steals prop on one day rest presents compelling value with a 70% over rate across 10 games, averaging 1.4 steals against typical 0.9 lines. The +33.6% ROI on overs reflects a clear pattern of enhanced defensive activity when Henderson has optimal recovery time.
Expert Analysis
Henderson's steal production jumps significantly on one day rest, creating a measurable edge that oddsmakers consistently undervalue. The 0.5 differential between his 1.4 average and typical 0.9 lines represents substantial value in a market where incremental edges matter. This pattern likely stems from Henderson's aggressive defensive style being more sustainable with proper recovery. Young guards often struggle with defensive intensity on back-to-backs, but Henderson maintains his disruptive tendencies when fresh. The 7-3 record includes a dominant 5-game over streak, suggesting this isn't random variance but a legitimate trend. However, the sample size of 10 games demands caution, and Henderson's inconsistent role in Portland's rotation could affect opportunities. The -42.7% ROI on unders shows clear market inefficiency, as books haven't adjusted to Henderson's enhanced steal rate in this specific rest scenario. His defensive instincts and gambling tendencies become more pronounced when he can maintain energy throughout games, leading to increased deflections and transition opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Henderson's 70% over rate on one day rest reflects a legitimate edge in steal production when properly rested. Target this prop when he's coming off exactly one day of rest, particularly against uptempo opponents that create more steal opportunities. The main risk is Portland's inconsistent rotation limiting Henderson's minutes, but the +0.5 average differential provides solid cushion.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Scoot Henderson's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Henderson goes 7-3-0 over/under on steals props with one day rest, hitting the over 70% of the time across 10 games from January through April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Scoot Henderson Steals 1 day rest?
Lean over on Henderson's steals with one day rest. The 70% over rate and +0.5 average differential create solid value, especially with typical 0.9 lines undervaluing his rested production.
What's Scoot Henderson's average Steals 1 day rest?
Henderson averages 1.4 steals on one day rest, significantly above the typical 0.9 prop lines. This +0.5 differential represents substantial value in the steals market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henderson's steals props specifically on one day rest against uptempo teams. His defensive intensity peaks with proper recovery, creating the best conditions for steal production and market value.