Scoot Henderson's steals props show a perfectly balanced 5-5 record over his last 10 games, with a modest +0.2 average differential above the 1.1 line. The neutral ROI and lack of directional edge suggest this market is efficiently priced with minimal exploitable value.
Expert Analysis
Henderson's steal production represents one of the most efficiently priced props in the market, with his 1.3 average sitting just marginally above the typical 1.1 line. The perfectly even 5-5 split indicates books have accurately calibrated expectations for the young guard's defensive impact. What makes this particularly telling is the consistency of the pricing—Henderson isn't experiencing the wild variance typical of rookie seasons, suggesting his defensive positioning and anticipation have stabilized. The longest streaks of three games in either direction show he's not prone to extended hot or cold runs, which often create betting opportunities. His steal rate likely correlates closely with Portland's pace and game script, but without significant home/road or opponent-strength differentials emerging in the limited sample. The -4.5% ROI on both sides confirms the market's efficiency, as sharp money has likely eliminated any edge that existed earlier in the season. Henderson's development as a defender appears to be progressing predictably, making his steal totals one of the more reliable props to avoid rather than target. The current one-game under streak holds little predictive value given the balanced historical performance.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence on any directional bet. Henderson's steals market represents textbook efficient pricing with no exploitable edge in either direction. The balanced 50% hit rate and neutral ROI indicate books have this dialed in perfectly. Only consider action if you identify specific game script advantages or pace-up spots that aren't reflected in the line movement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Scoot Henderson's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Henderson has gone 5-5 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with a -4.5% ROI on both sides. His longest streaks reached just three games in either direction, showing remarkable consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Scoot Henderson Steals last 10 games?
Pass on both sides. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and neutral ROI indicate this market is efficiently priced with no exploitable edge. Wait for specific game script or pace advantages before betting Henderson steals.
What's Scoot Henderson's average Steals last 10 games?
Henderson averages 1.3 steals over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.1 line, creating a modest +0.2 differential. However, this slight edge hasn't translated into profitable betting opportunities given the balanced results.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Henderson steals props unless you identify clear pace-up spots or defensive game scripts not reflected in line movement. His consistent performance has eliminated timing advantages, making this a market to monitor rather than attack.