Henderson's assists prop on one day rest shows marginal over value with a 53.8% hit rate (7-6-0) across 13 games. His 6.62 average beats typical lines by 0.6 assists, generating a modest 2.8% ROI on overs. This represents a lean over opportunity rather than a strong edge.
Expert Analysis
Henderson's slight over tendency on one day rest stems from Portland's uptempo style and his role as primary facilitator when rested. The 6.62 average against 6.04 lines suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his playmaking after standard rest periods. However, the modest 53.8% over rate indicates this edge is thin and requires careful line shopping. The 2.8% ROI on overs barely covers juice, while unders show concerning -11.9% returns, suggesting recreational money pushes lines too high. Henderson's current two-game under streak aligns with typical variance rather than systematic change. The lack of split data limits deeper insights, but Portland's pace-heavy system typically benefits assist props when Henderson isn't fatigued. The sample size of 13 games provides reasonable confidence, though not overwhelming. Key risks include blowout scenarios where Henderson sits fourth quarters and matchups against elite defensive teams that slow Portland's pace. The trend appears sustainable given Henderson's expanding role, but margins remain tight enough that line value becomes crucial for profitable betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Henderson's 6.62 average on one day rest consistently beats typical 6.0-6.5 lines, creating modest but measurable value. Target this spot when lines sit at 6.0 or lower, particularly against pace-friendly opponents. Main risk involves blowout games limiting Henderson's fourth-quarter opportunities, making game script considerations essential for maximizing this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 12.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 15.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Scoot Henderson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Scoot Henderson's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Henderson's assists prop on one day rest shows a 7-6-0 record (53.8% overs) across 13 games from November 2023 through January 2025, generating positive returns on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Scoot Henderson Assists 1 day rest?
Lean over on Henderson's assists with one day rest. His 6.62 average consistently beats lines around 6.0-6.5, creating modest but measurable value for disciplined bettors.
What's Scoot Henderson's average Assists 1 day rest?
Henderson averages 6.62 assists on one day rest compared to typical lines around 6.04, creating a positive 0.58 differential that translates to betting value on overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henderson assists overs when lines sit at 6.0 or lower on one day rest, particularly against pace-friendly opponents in competitive games where fourth-quarter minutes are likely.