RJ Barrett's three-point shooting has been ice-cold over his last 10 games, hitting the under at a 70% clip with just a 30% over rate. Averaging only 1.0 made threes against a 1.5 line creates a significant -0.5 differential that suggests continued under value.
Expert Analysis
Barrett's three-point struggles represent a clear departure from his typical output, with the 1.0 average falling well short of the 1.5 line consistently set by oddsmakers. This isn't just variance - it reflects deeper mechanical or confidence issues that have persisted across a meaningful 10-game sample. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how sharply the market has been punishing optimistic three-point projections for Barrett, while under bettors have enjoyed a robust +33.6% return. The longest under streak of three games suggests these shooting woes come in clusters, indicating when Barrett goes cold, he stays cold for extended periods. His recent form shows no signs of the hot shooting that would typically precede a regression to higher three-point totals. The fact that he's managed just one consecutive over during this stretch, compared to multiple under streaks, reveals a player genuinely struggling with his perimeter shot rather than experiencing normal shooting variance. This creates a situation where the betting market may be slow to adjust, continuing to offer inflated lines based on Barrett's season-long averages rather than his current reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Barrett's persistent three-point shooting struggles create clear value on the under, particularly when lines remain at 1.5 or higher. The 70% under rate and significant negative differential suggest oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form. Primary risk is positive regression, but the clustering pattern of his shooting woes indicates this cold spell may continue.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is RJ Barrett's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Barrett has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70%), hitting over just 3 times for a disappointing 30% over rate that has cost over bettors significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on RJ Barrett 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Barrett's three-pointers made props. His 70% under rate and -0.5 average differential from the line create clear value, especially when books set lines at 1.5 or higher.
What's RJ Barrett's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Barrett is averaging just 1.0 made three-pointers over his last 10 games, a full half-point below the typical 1.5 line, creating consistent value for under bettors in this cold shooting stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Barrett three-point unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, particularly during road games or after previous poor shooting performances when his confidence appears lowest and clustering effects are strongest.