RJ Barrett's three-point production at home has been consistently underwhelming, hitting the over in just 6 of 17 games (35.3%) while averaging 1.06 makes against a typical 1.5 line. The under has delivered a solid 23.5% ROI, making it the clear value play in Toronto home games.
Expert Analysis
Barrett's home three-point struggles stem from his role within Toronto's offensive system at Scotiabank Arena. Averaging 1.06 makes per home game against the standard 1.5 line creates a meaningful 0.4 differential that reflects genuine underlying factors rather than variance. The 35.3% over rate across 17 games provides sufficient sample size to identify a legitimate trend. Barrett's three-point shooting has historically been streaky, and home games appear to coincide with more conservative shot selection as he focuses on facilitating within the Raptors' structured offense. The longest under streak of 8 games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while the recent 1-game over streak doesn't signal meaningful regression given the overwhelming historical data. Toronto's home pace and Barrett's usage patterns create conditions where he's more likely to work inside the arc, making quality three-point looks less frequent. The -32.6% ROI on overs confirms this isn't just bad luck but a systematic underperformance that bettors can exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Barrett's 1.06 home average against the 1.5 line creates consistent value on the under, supported by a 23.5% ROI and 64.7% hit rate. Target this when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, especially in games where Toronto is favored and likely to control tempo. The main risk is Barrett finding his stroke during a hot shooting stretch, but the sample size suggests this is his true home baseline.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is RJ Barrett's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Barrett has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 6 of 17 home games (35.3%), with 11 unders. He's averaging 1.06 makes per home game, creating consistent value on under bets with a 23.5% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on RJ Barrett 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Barrett's three-pointers made at home games. The data strongly supports this with a 64.7% hit rate and positive ROI, especially when the line is set at 1.5 or higher.
What's RJ Barrett's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Barrett averages 1.06 three-pointers made in home games, which is 0.4 below the typical 1.5 line. This meaningful differential has created consistent value for under bettors throughout the season at Scotiabank Arena.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Barrett's three-pointers made under when Toronto plays at home with lines at 1.5+. The trend is strongest in games where the Raptors are favored and controlling pace, limiting Barrett's aggressive shooting opportunities.