P.J. Washington has obliterated three-point overs with a dominant 9-1 record over his last 10 games, averaging 2.8 makes against a 1.7 line for a massive +1.1 differential. This 90% over rate with +71.8% ROI represents one of the strongest prop trends in the market. Strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Washington's three-point explosion stems from Dallas's strategic repositioning of him as a floor-spacing forward following the trade deadline acquisitions. The Mavericks have deliberately increased his perimeter usage to complement Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving's driving lanes, creating more open looks from beyond the arc. His 2.8 makes per game over this stretch represents a significant uptick from his Charlotte role, where he averaged closer to 1.5 attempts per game in similar minutes. The consistency is remarkable - hitting overs in 9 of 10 games suggests this isn't variance but a fundamental shift in offensive role. Dallas's pace increase and improved ball movement have created more three-point opportunities across the roster, with Washington being a primary beneficiary. The lone under came during a blowout where fourth-quarter minutes were limited. Books appear slow to adjust, keeping lines around 1.5-2.0 when his current usage pattern suggests 2.5+ is more accurate. The biggest risk is regression to his career norms, but Dallas's offensive system and his improved shot selection indicate this could be sustainable through playoff positioning games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Washington's role transformation in Dallas creates a legitimate edge against outdated lines, but the 90% over rate suggests some regression is inevitable. Target overs when Dallas faces pace-up spots or when Washington's line stays below 2.0. The main risk is books catching up quickly to this trend, so act before widespread market adjustment occurs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is P.J. Washington's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Washington has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 9 of his last 10 games (90% over rate), averaging 2.8 makes per game against a typical 1.7 line for a +1.1 differential and impressive +71.8% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on P.J. Washington 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean over on Washington's three-pointers made props. His 9-1 record and 2.8 average against 1.7 lines suggests books haven't adjusted to his expanded role in Dallas's offense, creating legitimate betting value despite high over percentage.
What's P.J. Washington's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Washington is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, significantly above the typical 1.7 line for a +1.1 differential. This represents a substantial increase from his previous usage patterns and career averages.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Washington three-point overs when his line stays below 2.0 and Dallas faces pace-up matchups. Avoid during potential blowouts where fourth-quarter minutes might be limited, as his lone recent under came in garbage time.