P.J. Washington has obliterated points totals with an 8-2 over record in his last 10 games, averaging 14.7 points against an 11.7 line for a massive +3.0 differential. This 80% over rate with +52.7% ROI represents legitimate value, not variance. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
P.J. Washington's scoring surge reflects his expanded role in Dallas following the trade deadline acquisition from Charlotte. The 14.7 points per game average represents a significant uptick from his season norm, driven by increased usage in the Mavericks' playoff push. Washington's versatility as a stretch four has created more offensive opportunities, particularly in lineups alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving who generate open looks. The +3.0 differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his elevated role, creating consistent value. His 80% over rate isn't fluky variance - it's systematic undervaluation of a player finding his niche in a new system. The longest over streak of five games shows sustainability, while the brief one-game under streak indicates quick bounce-back ability. Washington's ability to score from multiple levels - three-point range, mid-range, and around the rim - provides scoring floor stability. The main regression risk comes from potential rest games as Dallas manages rotations, but his integration into their core rotation suggests consistent minutes. Books appear slow to react to his Dallas production, maintaining lines based more on Charlotte history than current reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Washington's 8-2 record and +3.0 scoring differential reflect genuine role expansion in Dallas, not random variance. The 80% over rate suggests books haven't caught up to his increased usage alongside elite playmakers. Ideal conditions are regular season games where Dallas needs scoring depth. Main risk is potential rest games or reduced minutes if the Mavericks build large leads, but his integration into their core rotation minimizes this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 13.5 | 1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 32.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 11.5 | 19.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 11.5 | 20.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 10.5 | 14.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is P.J. Washington's Points prop record last 10 games?
P.J. Washington has gone over his points total in 8 of his last 10 games for an 80% over rate. His average of 14.7 points significantly exceeds the typical 11.7 line, creating a +3.0 differential that has generated +52.7% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on P.J. Washington Points last 10 games?
Bet the over on P.J. Washington's points. His 8-2 record and +3.0 scoring differential reflect genuine role expansion in Dallas, not variance. Books haven't adjusted to his increased usage alongside Doncic and Irving, creating consistent value on the over.
What's P.J. Washington's average Points last 10 games?
P.J. Washington averages 14.7 points over his last 10 games compared to a typical line of 11.7. This +3.0 differential represents significant outperformance, driven by his expanded role following his trade to Dallas and integration into their offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target P.J. Washington points overs in regular season games where Dallas needs scoring depth. His expanded role alongside Doncic and Irving creates consistent opportunities. Avoid potential rest games late in meaningless contests, but his core rotation status minimizes this risk.