Paul George's steals props present a clear under opportunity with just 37.5% overs across 16 games. His 1.44 average sits 0.1 below the typical 1.5 line, generating +19.3% under ROI while overs hemorrhage -28.4%. The data strongly favors betting unders.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's steals production reveals a systematic underperformance that creates consistent betting value. His 1.44 average against the standard 1.5 line represents more than random variance—it reflects the reality of his defensive role in Philadelphia's system. George operates primarily as a help defender and rim protector rather than an aggressive ball-hawk, limiting his steal opportunities compared to perimeter-focused defenders. The 37.5% over rate across 16 games establishes a clear pattern, not a small sample fluke. His current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long tendency, having recorded a four-game under streak as his longest. The -28.4% over ROI demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues his steal potential, likely influenced by his reputation rather than his actual usage. George's defensive responsibilities focus on versatility and help defense rather than gambling for steals, making the under a mathematically sound approach. The persistence of this trend suggests structural factors rather than temporary slump, as his role remains consistent game-to-game. Bettors have profited significantly from recognizing this disconnect between perception and production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Paul George's 1.44 steals average consistently falls short of the 1.5 line, creating profitable under opportunities with +19.3% ROI. His defensive role emphasizes help defense over aggressive steal attempts, making this trend sustainable. The primary risk is occasional high-steal games against turnover-prone opponents, but the 37.5% over rate provides comfortable margin for error.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's Steals prop record all games?
Paul George's steals prop record shows 6 overs and 10 unders across 16 games, hitting the over just 37.5% of the time. His average of 1.44 steals per game consistently falls below the typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.1 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George Steals all games?
Bet under on Paul George's steals props. His 37.5% over rate and +19.3% under ROI demonstrate clear value betting unders. His defensive role focuses on help defense rather than steal-hunting, making this trend sustainable throughout the season.
What's Paul George's average Steals all games?
Paul George averages 1.44 steals per game across 16 contests, sitting 0.1 below the standard 1.5 betting line. This consistent shortfall creates the foundation for profitable under betting, as he rarely exceeds the market expectation for steal production.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Paul George steals unders consistently regardless of matchup, as his 37.5% over rate shows systematic underperformance. Focus on games where the line remains at 1.5, as this represents the sweet spot where his 1.44 average provides maximum edge.